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S.A.S » Ebor Festival 2017 » Glorious Goodwood 2017 » Goodwood Facts/Help

Goodwood Facts/Help

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1 Goodwood Facts/Help on Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:17 pm

Mike "Acesandeights"

Part of the Furniture
Part of the Furniture
Mark Johnston has trained a winner at every Glorious Goodwood this century. He is synonymous with success in the middle-distance staying races, but interestingly in recent seasons another area where he has regularly enjoyed success is in two-year-old races. His juvenile runners have accounted for five of his 20 winners since 2012, with those sent off shorter than 10-1 showing a £1 level-stakes profit of £13.33.

Ryan Moore dealt a series of blows to bookmakers last season as eight of his nine (89 per cent) shortest-priced rides landed the spoils (+£9.98) including 7-4 shot Franklin D who was a well-backed winner of the Betfred Mile. Interestingly, despite more than a third of his rides winning, his mounts returned an overall loss to a £1 
level-stake of £3.02. The betting proved to be a deadly accurate barometer to the chances of his rides. His biggest-priced winner was 5-2 and the 13 who were longer prices were all beaten.

The 5f Group 2 King George Stakes run over Goodwood’s sharp and predominantly downhill sprint course is usually run at a frenetic pace so is often dominated by really quick sprinters with bags of natural speed. This would explain why, curiously, six of the last seven individual winners of this race had previously won a race on the speed-favouring sprint track at York. The exception is 2012 winner Ortensia, although 21 days after her Goodwood success she won York’s premier sprint, the Group 1 Nunthorpe.

Francois Rohaut’s strike-rate at the meeting. He has sent out just three runners and all ran in the 7f Group 3 L’Ormarins Queens Plate. Amy Eria (33-1) was the stable’s first winner two seasons ago, while stablemate Al Jazi (12-1) repeated the feat last year and is likely to attempt a follow-up win next week.

The strike-rate of favourites from the Hannon stable (Richard and his father) in two-year-old Group races from 2009 onwards. Eight of the 12 hit the target for a £1 level-stakes profit of £6.51.

Home Of The Brave is a 7f specialist who has won 66 per cent of his races at this distance (six wins from nine starts, although subsequently disqualified from one race at a later date after a banned substance was found in his sample). He aims for a seventh win at the trip in Tuesday’s Group 2 Qatar Lennox Stakes.

Eleven of the 17 Sussex Stakes winners since 2000 were three-year-olds, meaning the age group have accounted for 65 per cent of the winners of this mile Group 1, which is a battleground between the Classic generation and older horses. Given three-year-olds, who receive 7lb weight for age, have contributed a much smaller 42 per cent of the runners, the Classic generation have punched above their weight historically in this top mile race.

Since 2000, apparent Aidan O’Brien-trained good things in Group 1s have invariably obliged. Seven of the 12 (58 per cent) sent off 3-1 or shorter were successful (+£4.05) and the five who failed to win finished second or third.

The percentage of Adam Kirby’s rides in handicaps at the meeting in the last two seasons that finished in the first four (seven out of 15). He’s ridden three handicap-race winners in this period with his mounts showing a £1 level-stakes profit of £10.50.    

The Placepot dividend to a £1 stake has exceeded £100 on a surprisingly low 45 per cent of occasions at Glorious Goodwood since 2013. At Royal Ascot in the same period a much higher 80 per cent of Placepot payouts surpassed £100. This reflects how all 18 of the horses sent off shorter than 5-4 at Goodwood in these seasons either won or were placed. The final day (Saturday), featuring the Stewards’ Cup and the sprint’s consolation race, is proving to be an exception, returning Placepot dividends in the last four years of £83.70, £716.40, £827.20 and £6,553.60.

Horses prominent in the betting have a strong record in Group races confined to three-year-olds. This century, 11 of the 25 runners sent off 3-1 or shorter were successful (+£8.21).

Racing room is often at a premium around Goodwood’s tight turns and trouble in running is common in 7f to 1m4f races with big fields. Some of the recent runnings of the Betfred Mile, formerly known as the Golden Mile, were rough races in which many horses encountered in-running hardship. In the last 12 seasons, 36 per cent of the horses who took part were hampered to some extent.

Sir Michael Stoute’s strike-rate in three-year-old Listed/Group 3 races this century. Nine of his 26 runners hit the target (+£12.58), and he often runs a Group 1 performer in the making in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes. Stoute has won this 1m4f race nine times, and three of his last four winners went on to win at the highest level: Conduit, Harbinger and Ulysses.

A third of all William Haggas’s two-year-old runners have rewarded their backers (four winners from 12 runners, +£3.25).

John Gosden’s strike-rate since 2000 in three-year-old handicaps. He has struck with five of his 20 runners for a £1 level-stakes profit of £28. Gosden has won the meeting’s 1m2f Class 2 three-year-old handicap three times with his last seven runners in the contest achieving finishing positions of 1172102.

The percentage of winners of 7f-1m handicaps featuring ten or more runners since 2011 who were drawn in stall one – 39 per cent came from stalls one to three. Had you blindly backed runners drawn one in these races you would have enjoyed a profit of £28.75 courtesy of seven winners from 28 bets. This illustrates how a low draw can be an advantage in big fields at these distances. Lower-berthed horses find it easier to take up prominent positions close to the inside rail, so save ground and are less likely to encounter trouble in running.

Aidan O’Brien’s surprisingly low strike-rate in two-year-old races since 2000 given his runners returned average odds of 3-1 (25 per cent chance when expressed as a percentage). Just four of the 24 rewarded their backers, for a £1 level-stakes loss of £13.93. However, a cautionary note: since 2014, O’Brien has celebrated three winners from five two-year-old runners (+£1.32).

Debutants have a disappointing record in maidens at the meeting with just three successful this century from 174 runners (two per cent strike-rate, -£156), and the record of newcomers sent off 5-1 or shorter is a strikingly-poor one winner from 18 runners (-£14). So experience would appear to be a valuable commodity in these races.

Last edited by Mike "Acesandeights" on Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:18 pm; edited 1 time in total

2 Re: Goodwood Facts/Help on Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:18 pm

Mike "Acesandeights"

Part of the Furniture
Part of the Furniture
Read this on the Racing Post hope helps someone

3 Re: Goodwood Facts/Help on Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:08 am


Thank you Mike for this very useful to add here

4 Re: Goodwood Facts/Help on Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:20 am


What you make of the first race Mike

Tipster Of The Year 2017 SeanRobertz

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