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S.A.S » Festivals 2017 » Ebor Festival 2017 » Ebor Festival

Ebor Festival

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1 Ebor Festival on Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:05 pm

XxicequeenxX

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CLEVER COOKIE 33/1 BETFRED EBOR
KIDMENEVER 25/1 BETFRED EBOR

Ten years ago, I wouldn't have dreamed of putting up a nine-year-old to win the Betfred Ebor because the race invariably went to an unexposed type whose true talent had been somewhat hidden from the handicapper.
That is often not the case any more with any number of big-priced winners and an increasingly diminishing weight range between the top and bottom of the handicap. Consequently, I think the ante-post value might well be the old boy Clever Cookie, who has shown more than enough on his last two starts to suggest he can be a force in a race like the Ebor.


Two starts ago in the Northumberland Plate, Clever Cookie was drawn on the wide outside and was dropped out last as a consequence. That wouldn't have been too big a problem if there had been a strong pace, but they wasn't and Clever Cookie had no chance of coming from last to first up the home straight.
He made a good fist of it though and might have been fifth instead of ninth but for being hampered a furlong out. That form seems to be the key to the Ebor with ante-post favourite Flymetothestars having finished third.


Last time, over the Ebor course and distance, Clever Cookie once again had too much running to do given the way the race went, but he stayed on like a Trojan up the home straight and wasn't beaten far by Barsanti and Rare Rhythm. Both of those ran brilliant races at Royal Ascot with Barsanti, who was only a length and three-quarters in front of Clever Cookie, finishing second to King George hope Idaho in the Hardwicke, while the winner Rare Rhythm ran away with the Duke of Edinburgh.


Dual-purpose superstar Sea Pigeon won the Ebor as a nine-year-old in 1979 and, while none of that age has scored since, Clever Cookie is dangerously well handicapped now and his last two runs strongly suggest he is still as good as ever.


Flymetothestars could easily be a Sir Mark Prescott special as he pulled far too hard in the Plate and still finished third. However, it would take a brave person to back him at his current odds as he has never run on turf.
More interesting as ante-post prospects go would be a couple who ran well in the race last season. Battersea was fourth and has dropped a couple of pounds in the handicap so another good run would be no surprise, while Shrewd stayed on to finish second to Heartbreak City. The problem with Shrewd is that he hasn't shown any form this season. If he shows signs of life prior to the Ebor, he would be extremely interesting.


If the ground was soft Saigon City would have a good chance at a track he likes, but he might be more of a Cesarewitch type as he does take time to warm up in his races.


The other one I like at this stage is Kidmenever for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. He reminds me a lot of 2012 winner Willing Foe in that he does all his racing at shorter trips but will surely be better over the Ebor trip of 1m6f.
He was third in the Wolferton at Royal Ascot on his first British run for Appleby and followed that up with another staying-on effort over 1m2f when second in a Listed race at Sandown.


Two of his best runs have come when stepped up to a mile and a half and on both occasions he strongly suggested a further step up in trip would suit him even better.



Last edited by Samantha.dee on Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:23 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Edited title for her because thought sounds better did text her first lol)

2 Re: Ebor Festival on Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:09 pm

XxicequeenxX

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Ebor Handicap
3.35 York, August 26

Abandoned in 2008, so nine races under analysis

Key trends

Carried no more than 9st 4lb, nine winners in last nine runnings
Double-figure draw, 8/9
Finished in the first two on one of last two starts, 8/9
Aged four or six, 8/9
Officially rated 94-101, 7/9
Won within last three starts, 7/9
Recorded best RPR within last two starts, 7/9
No more than nine Flat starts, 7/9
Other factors

Of the 23 to have carried a penalty in the last nine runnings, only one won (Purple Moon in 2007, trained by Luca Cumani, who also had the last penalised winner before that in 2004 with Mephisto).


Two of the Irish winners ran over hurdles earlier in the year.


Four winners were ridden by jockeys able to claim.

3 Re: Ebor Festival on Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:12 pm

XxicequeenxX

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Sir Mark Prescott, trainer of Flymetothestars and Pallasator
Flymetothestars is very ground dependent – he's run only on the all-weather. I don’t think he'll be going to York unless we get a prolonged period of soft ground. Pallasator is also an unlikely runner at this stage. He's been off colour and has missed a lot of work.


Roger Varian, trainer of Gibbs Hill and Battersea
Gibbs Hill holds an entry in the Ebor, but he also has plenty of other options so he's far from a definite runner. Battersea finished fourth in the race last year so we'll try to get him right again for it this time.


James Fanshawe, trainer of Higher Power, Star Storm, Lord George and Sam Missile
There's no real definite contender, although one might turn up on the day. Higher Power has a lot of weight, Star Storm goes to Goodwood next week, and Lord George disappointed in France last time. Sam Missile won't get in.


Jeremy Noseda, trainer of Sixties Groove
He's been entered for the Ebor and could run, but it depends on how he gets on at Goodwood next week before we firm up plans.


William Haggas, trainer of Dal Harraild, Call To Mind and Theydon Grey
We'll have to see how Dal Harraild gets on at Goodwood first. I'm not sure whether the Ebor would be the right race for Call To Mind at this stage of his career. Theydon Grey will run in the Ebor if he gets in – if he doesn’t he go for the 2m race at the meeting. He runs at Goodwood next weekend.


Jedd O’Keefe, trainer of Lord Yeats
He has a number of options over the next few weeks and the ground will be the deciding factor where he runs. I really don't know at the moment whether he'll go for the Ebor. He has options at Goodwood, Deauville, Newbury and Leopardstown as well as York.


Mick Channon, trainer of Elidor
He goes to Goodwood next week and then the Ebor. He finished third in the race three years ago and is in great form at present. He ran really well in a Group 2 in Ireland on his most recent start.


Ralph Beckett, trainer of Carntop, Lustrous Light and Magic Circle
Carntop is a possible at this stage. He looks as if he wants a step up in trip. I'd love to run Magic Circle, but he I fear he'll struggle to get in. I don't think Lustrous Light will get in either.


Charlie Fellowes, trainer of Prince Of Arran
We're definitely considering the Ebor for Prince Of Arran. If we did drop him back to 1m6f he'd need a good pace to aim at and he'd be most likely to get that in an Ebor. I think York would suit him. We'll make a plan after he runs at Goodwood next week.

4 Re: Ebor Festival on Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:14 pm

XxicequeenxX

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This year's Ebor looks as fiercely competitive as ever. There are 106 horses entered for the valuable staying prize but in reality only the top half of the weights have realistic claims of getting a run.


With this in mind only those entries have been analysed to try to ensure the horses under consideration have a genuine chance of running next month.


One runner just about as well as weighted as any is Mainstream. The Queen's horse looks anything but straight forward but at around 33-1 he does look overpriced.


Wild Hacked is perhaps just the pick of the weights on his best Tapeta form at Newcastle while any number of others are rated within a few lengths.


Mount Logan has yet to race beyond a mile and a half while stablemate King Bolette, a good winner at Windsor last time, failed to show his form on his only previous try at the trip.


One runner sure to stay is ante-post favourite Flymetothestars. Sir Mark Prescott's four-year-old is open to more improvement than most and boasts solid form on tapeta this year. He's clearly got plenty going for him and it's easy to understand why he's single-figure odds.


Dubka, a stablemate of Mainstream, is another with potential for Sir Michael Stoute. With just nine starts behind him, the son Dubawi is open to further improvement yet is another runner from Freemason Lodge available to back at 33-1. A small each-way interest on both may ensure a nice position for the Ebor

5 Re: Ebor Festival on Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:18 pm

XxicequeenxX

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Wild Hacked 122
Mainsteam 121
Mount Logan 121
Seamour 121
Shrewd 121
Suegioo 121
Battersea 120
Carntop 120
Good Run 120
Tawdeea 120
Cohesion 119
Kidmenever 119
Galapait 119
King Bolette 119
Soldier In Action 119
Top Tug 119
Dal Harraild 118
Higher Power 118
Scarlet Dragon 118
Montaly 118
Natural Scenery 118
Gibbs Hill 118
Star Storm 118
Nakeeta 118
Dubka 118
Aussie Reigns 118
Flymetothestars 118
Saigon City 118
Sixties Groove 118

6 Re: Ebor Festival on Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:38 pm

Angi

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This will certainly help someone whittle it all down

7 Re: Ebor Festival on Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:43 pm

Paulcrossley

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Thank you this will come in handy in couple of weeks for me so make sure to bump this thread in couple of weeks so i remember

8 Re: Ebor Festival on Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:06 am

Burningroots

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A good read this is going start looking into this myself in couple of weeks be interested in seeing what you end up with in the end Char

9 Re: Ebor Festival on Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:08 am

Burningroots

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XxicequeenxX wrote:
Seamour 121
Suegioo 121
Soldier In Action 119
Top Tug 119
Aussie Reigns 118
Sixties Groove 118
Them six interest me not just for the Ebor but in general

10 Re: Ebor Festival on Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:12 am

Burningroots

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The Ebor Handicap was first staged in 1843, and is currently the most valuable handicap in Europe, so with a decent pot up for grabs it’s no surprise this 1m6f contest attracts an ultra-competitive field – and this year will be no different.


Taking a quick look at the ante-post betting suggests the 2017 renewal is going to be another tough one for punters to unravel, but with so many top trends then hopefully we can narrow the big field down once we know the final runners on Thursday 24th August.


So, let’s get started – first-up is to looks at the age of past winners. We saw a 7 year-old win the race in 2015, but with 14 of the last 15 winners aged 6 or less then recent results suggest we should be wary of the older horses, while with 11 of the last 15 winners aged 4 or 5 then this is clearly the age bracket we need to be concentrating on. Litigant won the race in 2015 as a 7 year-old, but before that the mighty Sea Pigeon (9 years-old) in 1979 was the last horse older than 6 to land the race.


Many will feel that being run over 1m6f that the draw isn’t going to have much impact – wrong! Despite being run over this longer flat trip the staring position of your fancy is certainly something to note, especially with 12 of the last 15 winners hailing from a double-figure stall. Getting a good early position in the race and, more importantly, saving valuable ground is key – especially when turning for home at York. This is further backed-up as we’ve seen just two placed horses from stall one in the last 15 years!


Having previously won over 1m4f is important too with 12 of the last 15 winners fitting this trend, but this will, of course, apply to most of the runners. Being a handicap then the weight carried by your horse is another key stat to note with ALL of the last 15 winners having 9-4 or less, while 11 of those won with 9-1 or less on their backs.


It’s also been a race the bookies have loved in recent years – why? Well, we’ve seen just one winning favourite in the last 18 years, while if you like laying horses on the betting exchanges then you might also be interested to know that 8 of the last 15 market leaders have even failed to hit the frame.
Runners that had three or more outings that same season is another trend to look for (9 from 15), while 6 of the last 15 winners had previous course experience at York. A huge 9 of the last 15 (60%) winners ran at either Goodwood or Ascot in their last race, so it’s certainly worth delving back in the form to see where your fancy last raced. Finally, in terms of yards to note, then look no further than Luca Cumani. The Newmarket-based stable has won the prize three times since 1999, while despite not having won the race since 1996 the Sir Michael Stoute team are another to have on your radar with three past victories under their belt

11 Re: Ebor Festival on Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:18 am

Samantha.dee

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Like this race but love the Juddmonte International Stakes over this festival never forget Arabian Queen beating Golden Horn my biggest proudest tip that was  :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: so going set up a page for that race in the coming weeks good idea doing this IceQueen keeps it all in one easy to find place any bits of information i find for this race i will put in here and then we can break it all down and find something good between us all

12 Re: Ebor Festival on Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:05 am

XxicequeenxX

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Burningroots wrote:
XxicequeenxX wrote:
Seamour 121
Suegioo 121
Soldier In Action 119
Top Tug 119
Aussie Reigns 118
Sixties Groove 118
Them six interest me not just for the Ebor but in general
Soldier in Action and Suegioo are two i am paying a slight interest in at the moment with more so Suegioo will explain more in the coming weeks on this

13 Re: Ebor Festival on Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:06 am

XxicequeenxX

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Samantha.dee wrote:Like this race but love the Juddmonte International Stakes over this festival never forget Arabian Queen beating Golden Horn my biggest proudest tip that was  :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: so going set up a page for that race in the coming weeks good idea doing this IceQueen keeps it all in one easy to find place any bits of information i find for this race i will put in here and then we can break it all down and find something good between us all
Lol well if you manage to give me a 100/1 tip this time around i will buy you drinks all night lol

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