Horse racing

CONGRATULATIONS TO NEW CROWNED KING SCRAM
Latest topics
» Strictly over 18
Yesterday at 10:45 pm by Nick C

» Daily Ratings
Yesterday at 10:43 pm by Nick C

» Bottom three in the handicap
Yesterday at 10:03 pm by Relyod5454

» November Tips
Yesterday at 8:53 pm by Voodoo

» Wills Wannabees
Yesterday at 7:39 pm by Ubik

» S.A.S COVER TEAM
Yesterday at 7:18 pm by Samantha.dee

» Wills Weight Watchers
Yesterday at 6:59 pm by Ubik

» King/Queen of the Yard
Yesterday at 6:56 pm by HenYas

» Stick to the programme - sttp
Sat Nov 18, 2017 6:37 pm by Jh2103

Top posting users this week

Log in

I forgot my password




S.A.S

VICTIM


SEE YOU BOOKIE
Boo


You are not connected. Please login or register

S.A.S » SYSTEMS (tests) » Wills Weight Watchers

Wills Weight Watchers

Go to page : Previous  1, 2, 3

View previous topic View next topic Go down  Message [Page 3 of 3]

101 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:20 pm

Kelly


TART OF FORUM
TART OF FORUM
Well done again today lucky i telling you all these winners aint it

102 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:55 pm

Ubik


V.I.P
V.I.P
Thanks Kelly, yeah ill come clean and admit when i think of winning, i think of you on a bed of money...notes, not pennys, cos they get everywhere    

not much tomorrow but try and keep going
make a mistake today and did a 7 furlong one, only 2 mile and over works

Sandown
1:20 western Millar 8-1 2nd at 14-1 but dont ya just hate it when headed last stride
2:55 Fidux 9-1 \ san pedro de sarium nicker 18-1
3:30 double ross 11/4 \ loose chips 8-1

flos Las
2:30 drumviredy 9-1 \ lac sacre 16-1  (not both high risk PU horses)
3:05 prime venture 11/2 \ lovenormoney 7-1
3:40 Bonobo 11/4 
4:10 rock and roll king 12-1 \ global thrill 11/2

103 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:56 pm

Ubik


V.I.P
V.I.P
as expected, bit of a muh day, one winner and a placer i think

kempton
1:20  full 9/2 \ eyeswideopenawake 9/2
2:55 the last samuri 20-1 \ who dares wins 10/3 
4pm Templier 10-1 \ stonecoldsober 15/2 (old fave)


carlise
1pm vinos choice 10-1 \ spin the coin 9/2....nicker cyrano star 33-1
2:05 viserion 12-1 \ idder 7-1
3:10 granville isalnd 14-1 

might reduce this in the morning

104 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:30 pm

Ubik


V.I.P
V.I.P
@Ubik wrote:as expected, bit of a muh day, one winner and a placer i think

kempton
1:20  full 9/2 lost \ eyeswideopenawake 9/2 won at 11/2
2:55 the last samuri 20-1 placed at 33-1 \ who dares wins 10/3 lost
4pm Templier 10-1 placed \ stonecoldsober 15/2 (old fave) lost


carlise
1pm vinos choice 10-1 \ spin the coin 9/2....nicker cyrano star 33-1   NOT a handicap race, exluded
2:05 viserion 12-1 \ idder 7-1 both lost
3:10 granville isalnd 14-1 fell\lost

might reduce this in the morning

my apologies to Kelly and other followers, i must have been asleep because the 1pm at Carlise was NOT a handicap race and as such shouldnt have been tipped, still we got our first winner so not all bad!



Last edited by Ubik on Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:14 pm; edited 2 times in total

105 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:34 pm

Paulcrossley

avatar
Part of the Furniture
Part of the Furniture
well done did you see my double i landed you tart paid £22 for us you should of got on it bet you never new Godfather on the block now you tart

106 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:35 pm

Paulcrossley

avatar
Part of the Furniture
Part of the Furniture
How do you know what a handicap race is and what is one of them i do not in my life notice the difference? not even joking and i been gambling for many years

107 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:38 pm

Ubik

avatar
V.I.P
V.I.P
@Paulcrossley wrote:How do you know what a handicap race is and what is one of them i do not in my life notice the difference? not even joking and i been gambling for many years

it says it in the name of the race, someone here explained about handicaps but my system will never work for non handicap races, so unless the race says handicap, dont follow me in case i asleep again or just being dumb as kelly would say!


[size=42]1:20Kempton13 NOV 2017[/size]
RUK

2m2f BetVictor Chase (A Novices' Limited Handicap) (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-120)

108 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:39 pm

Paulcrossley

avatar
Part of the Furniture
Part of the Furniture
oh see i never notice that i do not even know the difference goes to show could be doing it years and still not know it all i do not have a clue what the difference is because never used it for my gambling might google it later see what the difference actually is

109 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:47 pm

Ubik

avatar
V.I.P
V.I.P
@Paulcrossley wrote:oh see i never notice that i do not even know the difference goes to show could be doing it years and still not know it all i do not have a clue what the difference is because never used it for my gambling might google it later see what the difference actually is


basically its this


handicap race in horse racing is a race in which horses carry different weights, allocated by the handicapper. A better horse will carry a heavier weight, to give him or her a disadvantage when racing against slower horses.

110 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:53 pm

Luana

avatar
Regular
Regular
Basically when you hear me going on about someones mark being higher and lower 

The very good horses will carry more weight in a non handicap the very good horses do not have carry more weights.

Non handicaps are easier to work out people can argue but Handicaps you spot fake fav's and that is why mixed results harder to work out because the market get it wrong top weights do win more races in handicaps because they are the best horses in the race hence the bigger weights but if only it was that simple lol i would not be put off by a highest weighted horse has this thread is showing they win lots many people are guilty of using weight too often me being guilty of that

111 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:55 pm

Paulcrossley

avatar
Part of the Furniture
Part of the Furniture
Thanks you tarts see just admit when do not know something instead pretending you do then you learn i never based my betting on handicap or not might look into bit more but i doubt i will come tonight i will of forgot lol

112 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:57 pm

Luana

avatar
Regular
Regular
Some people only bet on handicap races some never bet on a maiden race which is horses that have never won a race or new horses me personally only bet on them if something really positive stands out but then you really are gambling because very little form everyone has habits i think some of the best tipsters do not actually have a clue on the difference i find when you think you know it all is when you actually become a bad tipper because you do not look outside the box

113 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:07 pm

Ubik

avatar
V.I.P
V.I.P
@Luana wrote:Basically when you hear me going on about someones mark being higher and lower 

The very good horses will carry more weight in a non handicap the very good horses do not have carry more weights.

Non handicaps are easier to work out people can argue but Handicaps you spot fake fav's and that is why mixed results harder to work out because the market get it wrong top weights do win more races in handicaps because they are the best horses in the race hence the bigger weights but if only it was that simple lol i would not be put off by a highest weighted horse has this thread is showing they win lots many people are guilty of using weight too often me being guilty of that

yes thats it bang on and its quite a common system, but I have adapted it a little and Im building up a record of which course and going etc, is the most profitable. The winner today wasnt strictly the top weight, but by including form, jock form, yard form etc etc and all the things SAS have taught me, it was an easy pick.
It only works over a good distance, not for sprints, so I do only 2m and over, then a good horse is a good horse and the extra weight makes no difference sometimes

114 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:11 pm

Luana

avatar
Regular
Regular
No some people complicate it all sometimes it is so simple i look into weights going up and down and works for me more often than not, some work on speed and works more often than not some people go for the market 2/1 works more often than not and so on can anyone really say someone does it the best way no everyone does it different and to me if you find a way of winning 40% of the time then you have found your own personal winning ways

115 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:12 pm

Ubik

avatar
V.I.P
V.I.P
see i made a mistake there by not including  the winner in the 2:05 rhymers stone was the right weight and had form, but i didnt select it, probably cos it had been off a while 

and that was really stupid cos it has won in the past back from a break, so i really did myself there!

116 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:17 pm

Luana

avatar
Regular
Regular
lol but that is how learn from making mistakes i often do that

117 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:22 pm

Relyod5454


Part of the Furniture
Part of the Furniture
This might be of interest to someone regarding handicapping 






SEARCH






Bottom Weights in Handicaps

6 POSTS
PAGE 1 OF 1
  POST A REPLY  





re: Bottom Weights in Handicaps

byPittsburgh Phil» Wed Feb 26, 2003 8:42 pm

Yesterday, the bottom weight Absolute Utopia won at 50-1. Is there a profitable betting angle here? Do outsiders regularily win from the bottom of the handicap?

Bottom weights are the lowest rated runners in a race. Therefore it is no surprise that they will be going off at bigger odds than those at the top. But I have an interesting theory as to why bottom weights are also higher priced than those further up - it is based on punters being lazy  

Whats the first thing you do when you look at a racecard? Its the horse numbered 1 right? You then probably work your way down the list until you find a winner. 

There is nothing wrong with that. If the majority of handicap winners are from the top of the handicap then it makes sense to take a top down approach.

But think of all those mug punters in bookie land. Think of all those grannies starting at No 1. and stopping when they see the No. 3 horse called 'Bettys Hotpot' or 'Arthur's Cat'.

Well thats probably a simplistic theory. What I'm trying to say is that quite a few punters have already found 'a winner' by the time they have read half the card, and certainly if they are pushed for time, they never even consider the horse propping up the card.

Bottom Weight Dataset
I have created a dataset in the AW free samples section for you to analyse. Members note that you can get the same dataset from the members section too.

Here are some interesting snippets from the report:

Overall the bottom weight in handicaps has won 5.1% of the time and returned a 40.1% loss.

So what's the point eh? We should be laying right? Well the majority of them were outsiders. Over half (2793 of them) were 20/1+ . Too risky to lay at some of the crazy Betfair prices  

Now look at the stats for the SP and you will see that it's also risky laying the shorter priced runners.

Go back to the form and choose either the first 3 in the betting or those with SP < 10-1 and you will see that the profit is now quite like topweights.

top weights SP < 10-1 19.0% strike rate 10.0% loss
bottom weights SP < 10-1 14.0% strike rate 10.1% loss

So the ROI is the same but the strike rate for bottom weights is a few points lower than for the topweights. This is quite interesting as it shows that the bottom weight is offering better value than the top weight.

One other golden rule of the sand is to avoid females and just concentreate on the males. Sticking with the < 10-1 filter:

colts 22.7%, 41.8% profit
geldings 14.1%, 8.3% loss
horses 23.7%, 34.9% profit (low sample size)
fillies 9.8%, 38.7% loss
mares 11.3%, 20.2% loss

I think there is something in this. I'm quite sure that the bottom weight is seen as the last prize in the raffle, or the last kid to be picked for football teams. There is definite evidence that the bottom weight offers more "value" than those weighted higher. You can believe this is either because of class or because of lazy punters  

Give it a try guys. Bounce some ideas here. I'm quite sure a profitable angle can be created from bottom weights.

118 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:24 pm

Relyod5454


Part of the Furniture
Part of the Furniture
That's not mine just in case anyone thinks I came up with that....just read it somewhere!

119 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:24 pm

Paulcrossley

avatar
Part of the Furniture
Part of the Furniture
Thank you i will start looking more into all of this now

120 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:04 pm

Ubik

avatar
V.I.P
V.I.P
@Paulcrossley wrote:Thank you i will start looking more into all of this now

you should, I matched the last samuri with scrams over 18's system and when 2 great systems meet, sometimes there is magic  lol!

The last samuri 20/1..placed at 33-1

121 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:17 pm

Ubik

avatar
V.I.P
V.I.P
and another one gets away! if i stuck to my system would have had 3 winner today

Un Guet Apens was the 2nd highest and had form 

122 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:10 pm

Ubik

avatar
V.I.P
V.I.P
worcester
1:30 dresden 11-1 (not sure about this one) lost but 3rd, only 2 places though \ rolling dylan 11/2 WON
2:30 hadfield 9-1 place 13/2 is that better??\ degooch 11/2 lost

huntingdon
1:40 midnight gem 12-1 2nd \ the artful cobbler 7-1 3rd
3:10 uncle percy 9/2 \ nicker occasionally yours 25-1 yesssssssssss lol!



Last edited by Ubik on Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:20 pm; edited 3 times in total

123 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:22 pm

Paddiescharms

avatar
Regular
Regular
just about to do a quick write up on Dresden good luck

124 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:34 pm

Ubik

avatar
V.I.P
V.I.P
@Ubik wrote:worcester
1:30 dresden 11-1 (not sure about this one) lost but 3rd, only 2 places though \ rolling dylan 11/2 WON 8.60
2:30 hadfield 9-1 place 13/2 is that better?? 2.80 \ degooch 11/2 lost

huntingdon
1:40 midnight gem 12-1 2nd 3.4 \ the artful cobbler 7-1 3rd 2.4
3:10 uncle percy 9/2 \ nicker occasionally yours 25-1 yesssssssssss lol! 41.60


there you go Kelly, you told me to step up my game and at least a place in every race, enjoy the wine 

based on £1 e.w stakes
£16 stake
£58.80 returned

=42.80 profit..i think

125 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:25 pm

Ubik

avatar
V.I.P
V.I.P
no bets tomorrow, got a doctors thing, good luck  everyone and well done today, even tart paul who stole my best tip 

126 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:21 pm

Ubik

avatar
V.I.P
V.I.P
not really feeling it today but bored so

taunton
2:05 panis Angelicus 8-1 placed 2nd at 12-1 \ midnight magic 14-1 placed 3rd at 20-1
2:35 mighty missle 28-1 \ canicallyouback 8-1 both lost boooo, but fecker nearly went for tobacco road cos of the book
3:10 midtech valentine 15/2 place at 11-1 \ g for ginger 10/3 lost
3:40 sporting boy 9-1 lost the twat\ resolution bay 13/2 fecker, 2nd again

ludlow
3:30 miami present 12-1 fecker, just beaten into 2nd

127 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:23 pm

Paulcrossley

avatar
Part of the Furniture
Part of the Furniture
1.50 Zalvados 20/1 should be in here for tomorrow 33/1 in with a good chance 

You done really good today some good placers and winners

128 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:23 am

Ubik

avatar
V.I.P
V.I.P
cheers paul, hoping for more of the same

newcastle
1:05 chu chu percy 7-1 \ bescott springs 14-1
nicker rock and stones 40-1
2:50 no planning 11/4

cheltenham
12:40 nicker tintern threate 20-1 stable in very good form \ sugar barron 8-1 \ phils magic 9-1 (my pick)

1:15 banditry 11-1 \ nicker man look 25-1 \ my pick champagne city 16-1

1:50 bright new dream 7-1 could sneak a place

3pm cause of causes 11/2 \ my pick bertie boru 20-1, yard in form

129 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:47 pm

Paulcrossley

avatar
Part of the Furniture
Part of the Furniture
told you will 33/1 placer for you tart

130 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:52 pm

Ubik

avatar
V.I.P
V.I.P
@Paulcrossley wrote:told you will 33/1 placer for you tart

yep very good, tbh i didnt fancy it but stuck a nicker on it e/w, well done fella and thanks

champagne city drifted and got a nice place as well

131 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:57 pm

Paulcrossley

avatar
Part of the Furniture
Part of the Furniture
Sam is doing very well also i noticed my money going up and wondered why it because sam had 11/1 6/1 and 8/1 you know

132 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:58 pm

Paulcrossley

avatar
Part of the Furniture
Part of the Furniture
all should been on doitforvillage was heavy tipped on here

133 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Fri Nov 17, 2017 2:04 pm

Paulcrossley

avatar
Part of the Furniture
Part of the Furniture
forget that was not heavy tipped up like i thought must been a chat i had with someone lol

134 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Fri Nov 17, 2017 2:06 pm

Ubik

avatar
V.I.P
V.I.P
@Paulcrossley wrote:forget that was not heavy tipped up like i thought must been a chat i had with someone lol

yep i saw it and backed it, in the fiver challenge i think

135 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:47 am

Ubik

avatar
V.I.P
V.I.P
Uttox
2pm bob ford 11/8 shorty \ killala quay 12-1
3:05 druids diamond 8-1 \ my pick yasir 11/2 both placed

wetherby
1:40 early retirement 3-1 shorty place \ western rules 9/2
2:15 sharney spike 6-1 \ golden investment 6-1 won \ nicker rough justice 28-1
2:50 keep in line 4-1 shorty place \ our kylie 10-1 \ nicker only orsenfoolsies 28-1
3:20 get on the yager 11/4 lost

cheltenham
1:50 minella rocco  6-1
2:25 kylemore lough 7-1 \double treasure 16-1 \ my pick romain de senam 10-1 place
3pm dell arca 9-1 \ rockys treasure 13/2 place
3:30 seymour star 40-1 \ ahead of the curve 20-1 \ coole coody 33-1



Last edited by Ubik on Sat Nov 18, 2017 3:28 pm; edited 1 time in total

136 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Sat Nov 18, 2017 10:34 am

Ubik

avatar
V.I.P
V.I.P
double shorts
bob ford
keep in line
early retirement
get on the yager

long short lucky
druids diamond
golden investment
minella rocco
seymour star

137 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Sat Nov 18, 2017 3:18 pm

Ubik

avatar
V.I.P
V.I.P
ugh, going be a day of places by the looks of things

138 Re: Wills Weight Watchers on Sat Nov 18, 2017 3:56 pm

Ubik

avatar
V.I.P
V.I.P
and there it is ...the money shot coole coody! 33-1 and i cut it from my longshot lucky! 

back in profit again i think

139 Re: Wills Weight Watchers Yesterday at 10:54 am

Ubik

avatar
V.I.P
V.I.P
no bets today other than 
cheltenham 3pm
tigris river 14-1


not a system horse, just the one i fancy for interest in that race

140 Re: Wills Weight Watchers Yesterday at 6:59 pm

Ubik

avatar
V.I.P
V.I.P
nothing worth it tomorrow either

View previous topic View next topic Back to top  Message [Page 3 of 3]

Go to page : Previous  1, 2, 3

Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum