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S.A.S » The Lounge » Cheltenham 2018 trends DAY ONE

Cheltenham 2018 trends DAY ONE

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1 Cheltenham 2018 trends DAY ONE on Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:06 pm

Ubik

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2018 Supreme Novices' Hurdle Trends

Tuesday 13th March - 13:30 - Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Grade 1 - 2m110y


  • Irish- trained horses have a great record in the race in recent years, having won 11 of the last 16 runnings.

  • 17 of the last 19 winners won on their last appearance before the Cheltenham Festival.

  • 9 of the last 24 winners ran no more than twice over hurdles before the Supreme.

  • 14 out of the last 15 winners had raced at least once in the previous forty-five days before the Cheltenham Festival.

  • The Royal Bond and Deloitte Hurdle have been excellent trials in recent years.

  • Only 4 of the last 18 horses to start at odds of 3/1 or shorter have won.

  • Willie Mullins has a fine record in the race



Edward O'Grady, Willie Mullins and Noel Meade all have excellent records in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, the latter winning with Go Native in 2009 and Mullins having saddled Champagne Fever, Vautour and Douvan to victory. From the UK, Nicky Henderson is the only active trainer to have won this race more than once.



2018 Arkle Challenge Trophy Trends

Tuesday 13th March - 14:10 - Arkle Challenge Trophy - Grade 1 - 2m

  • Fourteen out of the last sixteen winners had a rating of 142 and over and five of these were the highest rated chaser in the race.

  • French bred horses have won ten of the last twenty runnings.

  • 27 of the last 27 winners finished either first or second in the last race before the festival.

  • Nine out of the last thirteen winners had either won or been placed at the Cheltenham Festival before.

  • Only three winners since 1976 did not have a prep run in the eight weeks leading up to the race.

  • Only five favourites in the last 24 runnings of the Arkle have won the race

  • Key trials include the Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown Park and the Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown.

  • Ten of the last fifteen winners had won a novice chase by the first week in December

  • Five year olds have a poor record in the race since the scrapping of their weight allowance.

  • Nicky Henderson has trained a record equalling five winners in the race.


Beware front runners in the Arkle, with only two winners, including 2015 champion Un De Sceaux, making all in this race since Analogs Daughter in 1980. Warwick's Kingmaker Chase is usually a good form guide, whilst the Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown is another premier trial.

2018 Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase Trends

Tuesday 13th March - 14:50 - Festival Handicap Chase - Grade 3 - 3m110y

  • 12 of the last 15 winners carried less than 11st to victory.

  • There has not been a winner rated higher than 150 for thirty years plus.

  • 11 of the last 15 winners were amongst the top four in the betting.

  • Novices have won four of the last nine runnings.

  • There has been just two horse aged eleven or over placed in the last fifteen runnings.

  • Eight of the last 18 winners have been placed at the festival before.

  • Seven of the last 13 winners won on their previous outing to the festival.

  • Paul Nicholls has never won this race.


Horses stalking the leaders have often fared well in this race, but The Druids Nephew was a prominent figure throughout the whole race in 2015 and having been switched from hurdles he was a fine winner of the race. There are very few trials for this race, but horses heading to Cheltenham in form are more positive selections for what can be a real betting conundrum.

2018 Stan James Champion Hurdle Trends

Tuesday 13th March - 15:30 - Stan James Champion Hurdle - Grade 1 - 2m110y

  • Katchit was the only five-year-old to win since 1985.

  • Nineteen of the last twenty winners all ran in the same calendar year.

  • Twenty-five of the last thirty-one winners were winners of their last prep run.

  • There have only been four winners over the age of eight since 1951 (Hurricane Fly).

  • Eighteen of the last 25 winners had won a race at Cheltenham before.

  • Irish trained horses have won this race on ten of the last sixteen runnings.

  • Check the form of the International Hurdle at Cheltenham, Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle and the Istabraq Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown.

  • 21 of the last 24 winners started in the top six of the betting, prior to the race.


Cheltenham Festival Trends.
Just one of the last 21 Christmas Hurdle winners has gone on to win the Champion Hurdle in the same season, with horses beaten in the race at Kempton going on to have a better record in the Champion Hurdle than the winner. Horses who won last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle have a poor record in the Champion Hurdle the following season, although 20 of the last 30 winners finished in the top four at last year's Festival. Neptune Novices' Hurdle winners fair better, with both Istabraq and Hardy Eustace following up their win in the novice ranks by winning the Champion Hurdle a year later.

2018 National Hunt Chase Trends

Tuesday 13th March - 16:50 - National Hunt Chase - Amateur - 4m

  • There has only been one winning five or six year old in the race since 1989.

  • Ten of the last thirteen winners had run over fences on three or four occassions before the Festival.

  • Jonjo O'Neill has trained four of the last 14 winners.

  • Three of the last five winners have been top rated and the favourite.

  • 28 of the 32 winners had finished in the top four in their last prep run.


2018 Festival Novices' Handicap Chase Trends

Tuesday 13th March - 17:30 - Festival Novices' Handicap Chase - Listed - 2m4f110y

  • Seven out of eleven winners of this race had won no more than once over fences.

  • Eight out of the eleven winners either won or finished second in their last race before Cheltenham.

  • Six of the last eleven winners were officially rated between 133 and 135.

  • Five of the eleven winners were seven-year-olds.

  • Six out of the eleven winners had previously won over two miles and four furlongs.

  • Look out for well backed Jonjo O'Neill runners owned by JP McManus.

  • Four out of the eleven winners had run in the previous season's Cheltenham Festival.


There's only been eleven runnings of the former Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase and all bar Hunt Ball (2012) and Present View (2014) of the last seven winners were all held up in-running. Horses that have previously contested pattern races are also ones to watch in this one.

2 Re: Cheltenham 2018 trends DAY ONE on Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:54 am

Ubik

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bumping this guys and gals!

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