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S.A.S » S.A.S MAIN BETS » Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2

Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2

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101 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:44 pm

Luana


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Part of the Furniture
think i have brought out the fight in a few people credit where due to Paul and Robert both fired the shots and both won will have to up my game 

Seven Fifty Dance Alone 10/1

I really think the market have this race wrong i was expecting this to be at the top and Avalanche to be the 10/1 so was a nice suprise for this horse, was 5L behind truffles at Galway on this mark but to me all that did was show big improvement because at the same mark over at Galway was beaten by Truffles the start before that by 10L, in theory this is actually on a mark of 59 if you take into account the 10lb claimer that this one is getting here won off a mark of 61 at this course and distance in June i am going to offer different advise tonight, I have taken this bet but if i see Avalanche drift out to around 9/1+ then i would be taking that bet also but tonight it stands at just this horse runs well this time of year often in the place money 


Each-way advised 

102 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:03 pm

Roses'n'Wine


Knows way round
Knows way round
@Luana wrote:

Seven Fifty Dance Alone 10/1

I really think the market have this race wrong i was expecting this to be at the top and Avalanche to be the 10/1 
i have always found stuff like this very good from Tipsters because what you said here about them having it wrong seems to of happened now with it becoming 9/2 always amazes me how tipsters predict stuff like this it is clever for someone who does not tip like myself

103 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:43 am

Luana


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Part of the Furniture
Read what we write Roses, if you read that then you will soon be able to do it,  do not be fooled by thinking we clever doing it because it is not honestly not if you are willing to learn. I will be happy to show you how to read a card anytime you want 

Five past Three Wind Place And Sho 9/1

Three horses stood out to me in this race Cray, Becky the Thatcher and this one, so i took a slight page out of the S.A.S book and went for the speed which this one just about beat Becky the Thatcher at. Will be coming here on a mark of 75 which seems comfortable when you take into account the last time this went over the hurdles he was on a mark of 113  in a class 3 race this now being a class 5. I think we best to go back to the closest he went to winning over hurdles when beaten a neck and that was in a class 4 at Leicester he was on a mark of 107 that is 32lbs he was well backed to win that race and he went from the back and just missed out on winning that race he certainly would be needing this further distance he would of won last time out if he did not refuse to run and the trainer does well over at this track 

Will each-way the bet because i think Becky the Thatcher is a big threat to my selection 

Each-way advised 

104 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:15 pm

Kelly


TART OF FORUM
TART OF FORUM
@Luana wrote:
Five past Three Wind Place And Sho 9/1

Three horses stood out to me in this race Cray, Becky the Thatcher 
Always the way that is lol

105 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:01 pm

Luana

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Always goes like that Kelly lol 

One fifty Dark Defender 12/1

Comes here on a mark of 79, what stood out to me on this horse is when racing over course and distance last year around this time was in a class 2 race off a mark of 88 and managed to place 2nd beaten 1L by Classic Seniority if you took the 5lb claimer into account that puts this at 4lb lighter today and dropping 2 classes from that run the ground is softening which is just the right type of ground for this horse a big chance 


Each-Way bet advised

Would be win only but is a good race with others standing chances

106 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:56 pm

Theo.Wolks

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Regular
Regular
@Luana wrote:Always goes like that Kelly lol 

One fifty Dark Defender 12/1

Comes here on a mark of 79, what stood out to me on this horse is when racing over course and distance last year around this time was in a class 2 race off a mark of 88 and managed to place 2nd beaten 1L by Classic Seniority if you took the 5lb claimer into account that puts this at 4lb lighter today and dropping 2 classes from that run the ground is softening which is just the right type of ground for this horse a big chance 


Each-Way bet advised

Would be win only but is a good race with others standing chances
Brilliant tipping luana such confidence in the "would be a win only" comment

107 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:04 pm

Foxy

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Weekly Fiver Champion £14.14
Weekly Fiver Champion  £14.14
The Goddess of the Handicap strikes again

108 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:15 pm

Relyod5454

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@Theo.Wolks wrote:
@Luana wrote:Always goes like that Kelly lol 

One fifty Dark Defender 12/1

Comes here on a mark of 79, what stood out to me on this horse is when racing over course and distance last year around this time was in a class 2 race off a mark of 88 and managed to place 2nd beaten 1L by Classic Seniority if you took the 5lb claimer into account that puts this at 4lb lighter today and dropping 2 classes from that run the ground is softening which is just the right type of ground for this horse a big chance 


Each-Way bet advised

Would be win only but is a good race with others standing chances
Brilliant tipping luana such confidence in the "would be a win only" comment
Well done again Luna...great price too!

109 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:18 pm

Mike "Acesandeights"

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Well done Relyod and Luana between you both you do really well on here i have followed both your tips and earned a nice profit out of following you two on here thank you

110 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:24 pm

Voodoo

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This section is slowly sneaking up the board i notice thank you it is parts like this that keeps me afloat with my own tips at the moment

111 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:38 pm

Relyod5454

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Mike \"Acesandeights" wrote:Well done Relyod and Luana between you both you do really well on here i have followed both your tips and earned a nice profit out of following you two on here thank you
Thanks Mike but in truth it's all Lunas work....I just thought of the platform for her ability to shine!

112 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:13 pm

Luana

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Thank you everyone for the kind words x

Hope no-one minds i took 4 bets tomorrow, if want put them in a smaller lucky 15 each-way if saving money

York holds no interest for me tomorrow the first day never does. 

Five Past Three Avalanche 16/1

I mentioned this horse the other day when racing at Leopardstown my selection Dance Alone was in the race and i thought the pricing was wrong on this horse that day the market thought it would win during the night now i think it is wrong again but in the other way overpriced. Comes on a mark of 68 with a 5lb claimer, was beaten a neck at Leopardstown on a mark of 65 without a claimer which makes this 3lb better off here in my working out, was just a small head behind 3rd place last start and really did look like he was due a winning run


Each-way Advised

Five Past Two Cosmic Chatter 12/1

What attracted me to this was obviously the weights but at the same time it was the softening ground, it is good to soft going which will suit this horse. Arrives on a mark of 62 which is 2lb lower than last start in class 5 company. Is showing up in a class 6 race today and in the 61 starts for this horse he's never ever been in class 6 company so will be interesting how he holds up in this much weaker company than he is use to racing in


Each-way advised 

Four fifty five Im Dapper Too 20/1

Had a big break away 217 days then a 83 day break and returned both times in class 4, is coming into a comfortable race now over a course he is a two time winner over soft going in this class at only 3lb lighter when pulling off a hat trick last year at this time a mark of 68 is not beyond him which showed when only beaten a neck at a mark of 70 at this course and distance last year a good run expected now in this company 

Each-way advised 

Five fifty Five Card High 33/1

When seen over course and distances was only beaten a small head on a mark of 72, comes here today on a mark of 70 so should not mind the step back up to this distance, when racing at Carlisle in the five starts he's placed in 3 of them which looks promising for our bet today, the ground is good 6 starts 2 wins and 1 place over it we could get some place value here

Each-way advised

113 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:21 pm

Colin.

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REGULAR
REGULAR
@Luana wrote:Four fifty five Im Dapper Too 20/1
Had a big break away 217 days then a 83 day break and returned both times in class 4, is coming into a comfortable race now over a course he is a two time winner over soft going in this class at only 3lb lighter when pulling off a hat trick last year at this time a mark of 68 is not beyond him which showed when only beaten a neck at a mark of 70 at this course and distance last year a good run expected now in this company 
Each-way advised 
I know you wont mind me doing this, but you missed out very important information for this Luana, this horse placed in this race last year and is now 2lb lighter for it this year which is very important to include and would certainly make me take the bet thank you for pointing this horse out to me

114 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:25 pm

Luana

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Thank you for that Colin, that is a schoolboy error on my part i did not notice was the same race ran off in last year but it makes it even more of a solid bet to be taking then, i always appreciate anyone stepping in if i miss something out because you are right that is a key part of information to give out to any follower, i looked into your selection of Boom the Groom the race is so open that i am avoiding having the bet on it a race i can miss, i will of course do the tracker horses but other than that it is a no go race for me to be tipping up on.

115 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:22 pm

Colin.

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Just took it for a singles + done the each way double with my one Luana    

116 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:52 am

Theo.Wolks

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Pricewise extra tipped im dapper too this morning let us hope he is having a good day

117 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:15 pm

Ubik

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Red Diamond
Red Diamond
Noob question but how do you find what is top/bottom weight? I used to sort by weight but that's wrong apparently

118 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:33 pm

Theo.Wolks

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not a noob question do it like this Will

119 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:13 pm

Theo.Wolks

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Regular
@Luana wrote:
Each-way Advised

Five Past Two Cosmic Chatter 12/1

What attracted me to this was obviously the weights but at the same time it was the softening ground, it is good to soft going which will suit this horse. Arrives on a mark of 62 which is 2lb lower than last start in class 5 company. Is showing up in a class 6 race today and in the 61 starts for this horse he's never ever been in class 6 company so will be interesting how he holds up in this much weaker company than he is use to racing in


Thank you Luana

120 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:41 pm

Relyod5454

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@Theo.Wolks wrote:
@Luana wrote:
Each-way Advised

Five Past Two Cosmic Chatter 12/1

What attracted me to this was obviously the weights but at the same time it was the softening ground, it is good to soft going which will suit this horse. Arrives on a mark of 62 which is 2lb lower than last start in class 5 company. Is showing up in a class 6 race today and in the 61 starts for this horse he's never ever been in class 6 company so will be interesting how he holds up in this much weaker company than he is use to racing in


Thank you Luana
You are really on song!

121 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:45 pm

Relyod5454

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@Ubik wrote:Noob question but how do you find what is top/bottom weight? I used to sort by weight but that's wrong apparently
Will...I think the name of the section might be confusing you....Luna I think puts up all her tips here regardless of weight.

122 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Wed Aug 22, 2018 6:04 pm

Theo.Wolks

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@Luana wrote:Five Past Two Cosmic Chatter 12/1
Each-way advised 

Five fifty Five Card High 33/1
Each-way advised
i will accept that great stuff thank you, this room is her "second home" now she started doing weights then just basically went to posting all her tips here instead of changing rooms all the time

123 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Wed Aug 22, 2018 6:21 pm

Luana

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Thank you everyone, i do try to make it about the weights but i found i was not tipping up too much when working on the bottom three and was always left kicking myself when horses was winning that was not fitting into the title of the topic, so i started just placing all my bets in this section Theo is also right about the weights that is how you find the top and bottom weighted. I always pick horses that are running below winning marks in the weights because i find many miss these sort of horses and lot of them do win at good prices and by the time the market notices they stand a chance they miss the prices that showed with Cosmic today and many times

124 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:55 pm

Luana

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Not really confident on these only one i strong on tonight is Alfie Solomons for the place  value 

Two forty Five York Alfie Solomons 25/1

I backed this at Goodwood and got some really good place money out of this horse ran a massive race to come 2nd out of 14 and was just behind Don Armado who ran well in the Ebor on Wednesday i do think they keep underestimating this horse only been raised 2lbs for that and only 1lb than when coming close at Ripon 

Each-way Advised

Two Fifty Corperal Maddax 22/1 

The older horse in the field this is, turns up today on a mark of 55 which is a pretty decent mark when you look at his win over this course and distance last year winning by 2L off a 2lb higher mark that was with the booking of Probert and is the right time of year to catch him 

Each-way Advised 

Ten past seven Arrowzone 10/1

Heads to here with a AW mark of 58 that makes it just 2lb higher than when racing and winning over course and distance in November is capable off much higher in the past and is not actually a really old horse only 7 Kevin Frost and Jones are both in form 

Each-way Advised

125 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:44 pm

Millster

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@Luana wrote:Two forty Five York Alfie Solomons 25/1
I backed this at Goodwood and got some really good place money out of this horse ran a massive race to come 2nd out of 14 and was just behind Don Armado who ran well in the Ebor on Wednesday i do think they keep underestimating this horse only been raised 2lbs for that and only 1lb than when coming close at Ripon 
Each-way Advised
Well done here Luana your most confident brought home the place money xx

126 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:25 pm

Luana

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Thank you Milster was not that confident on them i am bit more confident on these i done them in order 1st being most confident 

Four twenty Fire Jet 10/1

Is the only course and distance winner in this race, comes today on a mark of 88 was beaten over course and Distance in May by a small head with Quinn booked in on a mark of 90 which puts this at 2lbs lighter today. When won over course and distance this beat St Marys in October by a neck on soft ground that time St Marys gains 7lbs since that race this horse is only 1lb higher than that win so can not see why St Marys is priced shorter than this today, this holds a 50% win strike rate here and 50% at this time of year and is not only 4lb higher than when winning this race last year 


Win only Advised


Two Fifty Blaine 33/1

Comes here on a mark of 85, that puts it 2lb below his Epsom win in class 2 a couple of years ago and puts him 9lb below when winning the Starlight at Newbury in class two when ridden by Dettori going off at 25/1 that day, he beat Gunmetal during that race who just went onto winning the St Wilfrid at Ripon this week also had the wind operation now


Each-Way Advised 


Seven o'clock Bitview Colin 66/1

Was third in this race two years ago on a mark of 120 is dropping to 111 for this race now so can handle the distance, won a race at Hex in October off 115 second best speed just behind Ivanovich Gorbatov this one is for the place value 

Each-way Advised

127 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:58 am

Ubik

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Red Diamond
Red Diamond
@Theo.Wolks wrote:not a noob question do it like this Will


I didnt get a chance to say thanks properly theo. and yes I was thinking Luana was doing bottom weight only in this thread lol!

Now i am not on mobile i can show you my puzzle better,
in the 6:05 goodwood tonight look at
Recuerdame 12-1

It shows the weight at 8-11, but then says it is 5lb higher than in its last race yet the last race it won it shows as weight was 9-2, which is higher, not lower no?

greenback boogie is my tip in this one lol!

128 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:34 am

Theo.Wolks

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it can even confuse the best this subject Will, i did not understand it until i read Luanas write ups regular then i got the basic understanding  the weight they mean is the Official Rating which is the handicap mark

Recuerdame raced off 65 on her last race in a class 5 

Today is 70 in a class 4 

so makes it 5lb higher today

The trick is working out now if the handicapper is right in saying this horse is a 70 rated horse in class 4 that is why Luana does well she seems to have a gift when comes to working out if they are capable of winning off the current marks or not 

So basically if a horse was on 70 in a class 4 then ended up 60 in a class 4 after being beaten only a neck when rated 70 you would think being 10lb lighter should be winning the class 4 at 60 by about 8L if only it was that simple lol 

Looking at the horse i think will not be able to handle to extra 5lb rise 

So always look at the OR section that is the part weight watchers check but i do understand why people look at the WEIGHT  section it took me long time to work it out and that was via reading Luana's write ups and i saw not even Sam knew about it because in her write ups she stated in the past she learned off Luana's write ups also on the importance of it.

Some do their own weighting system if look at racing post it holds a section you can write what you think the real weight is so it is a game against you and the Handicapper in theory

129 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:44 am

Luana

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I like to imagine towing a car i will explain 


If i was driving a car now i would do lets says 60MPH 


If i was using that car to tow a other car we could sneak in 40MPH


If i towed 3 cars on the back of my car i be lucky to get 10MPH

Your a ex army man Will, when going up Pen Y Fan you could make it up in about 3 hours, you add a backpack loaded with stones you will make it up in about 4 - 5 hours

Yet if you spent a year going up that mountain with the back pack over time you will cut the hours back to 3 hours now if they suddenly removed the backpack off you after spending a month going up that mountain carrying all that weight you would feel like the weight of the world is off your shoulders and you would storm up that mountain lol

130 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:04 pm

Ubik

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Red Diamond
Red Diamond
thank you both!

amazing to think i had some good winners in my weight watchers section when i just sorted by weight paying no attention to OR lol!!!!

131 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:48 pm

Luana

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Many like to keep the money safe on the Saturday and i am similar but is one horse that is standing out to me, with so many cards it is difficult to go over them all with the same tuning you would do on a normal day so by the time you go half way you kind of give up and get brain freeze 

Eight o'clock Fortinbrass 9/1

Is returning to this course and distance at a mark of 52 the same mark he attended when placing over course and distance last time out placing second, what made me go with this here is so many of the horses are out of the handicap here and it could help this one a great deal not had a win on the turf in a long time often being seen on the AW tracks and is far from the horse we once knew but he could manage to get himself at least a place here 


Each-way bet Advised 

132 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:14 am

Relyod5454

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Long time since I tried one of these

Steel Wave...4.20...Killarney...12/1....EW.

133 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:15 pm

Luana

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Three thirty five Mr Red Clubs 12/1

Comes today on a mark of 69, that puts this 6lb below last turf mark and 4lb lighter than his AW mark won this race last year on a mark of 73 so again that is 4lb lighter today when won the by 3l

Each-way Advised

134 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:32 pm

Luana

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Five o'clock Lucky Beggar 10/1

I see this already been tipped tonight, but does no harm in tipping again. Comes today on a mark of 72 was winning over course and distance on a mark of 83 that puts this 11lb lighter today won by over 1l that time, that was in a class 4 race this now being class 5 which makes it a easier race if follow the class rules. Jockey booking of Allan is a big step forward here he rode this to that win and when last on the horse was only beaten by a small head on a mark of 77 and he is 2 wins 3 places out of 11.

Win only advised

135 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:50 pm

Luana

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Well done Ice on your win for this month is deserved after having a great month with the trackers was only fitting to end the month with a win again deserved the tipster of the month  

Two Fifteen No No Cardinal 10/1

Is taking a drop down in class for this race when last in this class was on a mark of 86 is remaining off a mark of 81 here with a 7lb claimer only had a 5lb claimer when was weighted on 86 so in theory this is 6lb lighter today was beaten only a small head over C&D on a mark of 83 in May last year stands a small chance 

Each-way advised 

136 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:04 pm

Luana

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Five fifteen Bashiba 8/1

Was the winner of this race in 2015 on a mark of 76 turns up here on a mark of 78 but when you include the 3lb claims that puts this one 1lb lighter than when beating Confessional to land a big win back then was worth a look when you think Dettori was willing to take it for a ride today the jockey is no Frankie but he knows how to ride a good ride. Won a class 3 at Windsor on a mark of 78 two years ago, he avoided going back to this race for two years deciding to go over Ascot and York instead 

Each way advised 

137 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:09 pm

Luana

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Three Thirty Five Dee Ex Dee 14/1

I noticed this was already tipped up the other day for today they have targeted this horse for this race and everything is in the right place 


Win only Advised 

Six fifty Five Piazon 20/1

Comes today on a mark of 61 with a 3lb claimer booked in this puts him 3lb lighter than when last running at Thirsk was 6th out of 13 5l behind Alfies Angel, when running at Nottingham was on a mark of 64 and was placing 2nd again in a big field that came over 5f last win last year was in a class 4 race on a mark of 77 making it now 16lb lighter here 


Each-way advised 

138 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Tue Sep 18, 2018 9:37 pm

Luana

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That 83 year old man who stopped them 3 young idiots robbing the bookies in Ireland good on him need more people standing up to these type of people made my night reading that 

five thirty five Unnoticed 17/2

Comes on a turf mark of 53 which puts him 17lb below when being beaten a small head over this course a few years ago is hard to catch at the right time and would be more confident if on the AW but is a new distance for this horse now and at the weights am placing a bet on this one 

Each-way advised 

139 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:58 am

Ubik

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Red Diamond
Red Diamond
that was me...I showed them a picture of Paul and told them they would end up looking like that if they didnt stop robbing and they soon went running 

140 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:31 am

Danny.West

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That be enough of a threat to make any man run lol

141 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:34 pm

Ubik

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Red Diamond
Red Diamond
peeps in ireland will know this

142 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:59 pm

Paulcrossley

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You tarts

143 Re: Bottom three in the handicap....Part 2 on Wed Sep 19, 2018 7:42 pm

Luana

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one fifty Sky Patrol 9/1

Is a relatively new horse still but not without promise is a couple of pounds down and gets the inform Atzeni who rode this to 2nd place at Nottingham a couple of runs ago competed over C&D twice one placing 2nd the other coming 3rd should break the tag now 

Win Only Advised

Luana

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Hanagan could have a brilliant day tomorrow going for all his horses at Ayr writing them out in order


***
Ventura Bay 8/1
Borodin 4/1
Gabrial the Saint 14/1
Kodyanna 12/1
Growl 9/1
Delph Crescent 12/1
Right Action 10/1
Amazing Michele 8/1

Small each-way Goliath you could split them into 2 lucky 15's if want but then you might get the wrong order 


***
Prices will be different if you are taking the Goliath, i have put the odds at best available prices for leaderboard purposes because Kelly counts each being single bets so wanted to include the best available prices tonight 

Small Stakes Goliath Each-way advised 

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