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S.A.S » SYSTEMS (tests) » Strictly over 18

Strictly over 18

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1 Strictly over 18 on Tue May 09, 2017 1:38 am

Scram

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In this topic, I will look at some of the horses with odds over 18 (used to do over 20 but strictly over 18 sounded better as a topic name... ;) ) which come up from the various bit of data I look into.
Some will be good, most will be better forgotten...

2 Re: Strictly over 18 on Tue May 09, 2017 1:42 am

Scram

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9/05:

FF4 - One Term 33/1 Unplaced 4th ... appeared top of the predictor in this race but nothing else is backing this up (apart from Sean's system). Wolftrap, paddy's motorbike Placed 2nd , allelu alleluia Placed 3rd might be better, matchaway also. Tough.  

L1 - Marchingontogether 20/1 Won! .... this one is interesting with SDS on board and in the morning shortened quite a bit. Competitive race with Ghepardo Before Last, Hope and glory Unplaced 7th , Queen of Kalahari Placed 3rd and possibly Jungle queen Unplaced 6th to play the front though  

E5 - Brandy and red 28/1 Unplaced 3rd close... a 2 places race with Inch rock appearing like the best, behind it can be between forrardon xmoor Placed 2nd , honourable exit Unplaced 4th and brandy and red? This might be too far a step for this one.

FK6 - Hill of gold 20/1 Unplaced 5th ... pretty much everything points to this one as a good potential. 3 places, so 2 might go for monsieur gibraltar Unplaced and master workman Won , the third for hill of gold?

A7 - Norville 20/1 Before Last ... 3 appear better than the rest in new abbey angel Placed 2nd, in focus Unplaced 5th and not a bad oul day Won. these last 2 are however passable by maybe Norville or even Rajapur

and a few more came through
A7 - Rajapur 25/1 Last ... same as above for Norville

L1 - Jungle queen 22/1 Unplaced 6th .... same as comment for marchinontogether above

FK4 - Wiesentraum 18/1 Pulled Up ... not over 20/1 anymore so this one just sneaked in. Looks good, talk of the south Placed 3rd , amiral collonges Won , itoldyou Placed 2nd or dream of theatre Unplaced 4th will dispute.


order of preference for chances:
1 - hill of gold   Nope
2 - wiesentraum  Nope
3 - norville   Nope
4 - marchingontogether Yes! Won
Too much for the other probably...



Last edited by Scram on Tue May 09, 2017 7:57 pm; edited 4 times in total

3 Re: Strictly over 18 on Tue May 09, 2017 1:43 am

Oldrum

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Bet lot of men rubbed hands when opening this thread up :lol:

4 Re: Strictly over 18 on Wed May 10, 2017 1:16 am

Scram

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10/05


Chester 1: Floss the hoss 25/1  NR... SDS on board and he has brought in some big winners in the last week. Disputed with Emilia James Unplaced 4th, Requinto Dawn Unplaced 7th and Central City Placed 3rd. Doable.

Newtown Abbot 2: Gentleman jon 18/1 Placed 3rd ... Master Jake Pulled Up looks the best, but then Keltus NR and Gentleman could dispute.

Chester 3: Ballesteros 25/1 Unplaced 7th ... Some good numbers for it but tough race to select from. El astronaute Win may win it, sir maximilian NR there too, powerallied NR my preferred pick but then why not Ballesteros...

Chester 7: Edgar balthazar 28/1 NR & Call out loud 22/1 Unplaced 7th ... Edgar Balthazar would be my preferred choice (so get ready for call out loud to finish before it :P  ). Another very tough race. Gin in the Inn Placed 2nd with LTO result goes at the front. but then gabrial the tiger Unplaced 8th, fast dancer Unplaced 6th, skeaping Last, dark defender Before last and edgar balthazar could all be around there... and call out loud too...

Chelmsford 4: Wellies in the water 25/1 Win! ... this one has plenty of shorties viscount barfield Unplaced 4th, that is the spirit Placed 3rd, mount tahan Placed 2nd, hammergun Last so might be difficult for wellies in the water but it has placed nicely in the past.

Chelmsford 7: Arcadian sea 33/1 morning move to 40/1  Unplaced 4th, pity had it on a single and a couple of Luckys... SDS ride. 2nd on my ranking behind grieg hall Placed 2ndand kasperenko Win third. Why not...

Dundalk 2: Rosa Klebb 20/1 Unplaced 4th... Ice canyon probably winning it Unplaced 3rd, fasuba Win and rosa klebb to dispute for places.

Dundalk 4: Always dancing 25/1 Unplaced 7th ... a difficult race for always dancing with light laughter Unplaced 6th smoulder Win and faradays law Unplaced 4th probably better.


Most fancied:
1. Arcadian Sea  Lost
2. Gentleman Jon  Placed
3. Rosa Klebb  Lost
4. Ballesteros  Lost
5. Floss the Hoss  NR
6. Wellies in the Water   Win!
7. Always Dancing  Lost
8. Edgar Balthazar  NR
9. Call out loud  Lost



Last edited by Scram on Thu May 11, 2017 9:06 am; edited 1 time in total

5 Re: Strictly over 18 on Thu May 11, 2017 1:02 am

Scram

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11/05

Right 2 winners in 2 days, need to continue the trend... no pressure...

Thursday horses to further look into in the morning:

Cat4 sexy legs 25/1 Last... down to 16/1 in the morning but also now a race of 2 places after a NR. To dispute Coronation day, Bahamian bird Win and Courier Placed 2nd. On 3 places a maybe on 2 maybe too much...

Cat5 crakehall lad 20/1 Placed 2nd... down to 16/1 in the morning too.Tonto's spirit NR, Cavalieri Unplaced 4th and Dream serenade Placed 3rd to dispute. doable.

Cat6 secret missile 25/1 Before Last... down to 20/1 in the morning. Vallarta Win, Extra star Placed 3rd and Meshardal Placed 2nd in the mix. doable.

T1 dovil's duel 33/1 oh dear Before Last ... Irish races are always tough to get Proof in the pudding.... Very large field so danger potentially from many horses. The battle ofr the top could be between knockmaole boy Placed 2nd and silken thomas Unplaced 4th. 3rd place for dovil? maybe if there is not another left fielder around in that mass of runners...

T6 golander 20/1 Pulled Up... up to 25/1 in the morning. At the front, West cork golan Unplaced 5th, ar fheabrhas ar fad Pulled Up, also dimple Placed 3rd and royal tara Win. it is a busy place for 3 places...But...

T7 Something sweet 18/1 Unplaced 12th... Holycross lito Placed 3rd, king's dolly Unplaced 4th probably the best one, nana joan Unplaced 5th. something sweet in that mix.

T8 Friary gold 33/1 Placed 2nd... probably too far from the others with fabulous saga Win, blue mountain Unplaced 6th, smiths corner Before Last and kildownet Unplaced 7th better. But again it is in Ireland and always seem to surprise...

So far at first sight the one with potential is secret missile, appearing in 2 sets of data.

List of preferences:
1. Secret missile  Lost
2. Crakehall lad  Place
3. Sexy legs  Lost
4. Dovil's duel  Lost
5. Golander  Lost
6. Something sweet  Lost
7. Friary gold  Place


not amazing but we cannot have what does not exist. The highest winner across the meetings is 10/1 ... 2 places will do for today...



Last edited by Scram on Thu May 11, 2017 10:05 pm; edited 4 times in total

6 Re: Strictly over 18 on Thu May 11, 2017 7:58 am

Nick C

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Hi Scram, great idea for a topic!  if it is OK I will post a few of my "hopefuls" on here...all over 18/1 at time of selection. Basically these are annotated ST1 on my ratings...a measure/comparision of the stallion for the horses in a race. It does throw up some decent price winners, but needs more work. The first number is runners in the race.
11 Chester 15:00:00 Letmestopyouthere 18/1
6 Carlisle 19:25:00 Iriss Promise 20/1
18 Tipperary 18:10:00 Sweet Home Chicago 20/1 3rd 16/1
8 Catterick 15:45:00 Sexy Legs 25/1
6 Catterick 14:35:00 Chauvelin 33/1
7 Chester 13:50:00 Parish Boy 33/1
20 Tipperary 17:10:00 Nineteensixteen 66/1



Last edited by Nick C on Fri May 12, 2017 8:17 am; edited 1 time in total

7 Re: Strictly over 18 on Thu May 11, 2017 8:28 am

Scram

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@Nick C wrote:Hi Scram, great idea for a topic!  if it is OK I will post a few of my "hopefuls" on here...all over 18/1 at time of selection. Basically these are annotated ST1 on my ratings...a measure/comparision of the stallion for the horses in a race. It does throw up some decent price winners, but needs more work. The first number is runners in the race.
11 Chester 15:00:00 Letmestopyouthere 18/1
6 Carlisle 19:25:00 Iriss Promise 20/1
18 Tipperary 18:10:00 Sweet Home Chicago 20/1
8 Catterick 15:45:00 Sexy Legs 25/1
6 Catterick 14:35:00 Chauvelin 33/1
7 Chester 13:50:00 Parish Boy 33/1
20 Tipperary 17:10:00 Nineteensixteen 66/1

Of course Nick, thread is for everybody looking at this kind of horses.
I see Parish Boy on your list. one of the ones i think could be out there today with Josephine Gordon on board but decided to keep out of the shortlist, not that the others on the list are much better... Only problem for it: a race of 2 places and Khairat, Sennockian star, Berkshire will all be fighting for it. Apparently stalls are important in Chester so being on Nr 3 could be good for Parish boy but too many others for 2 places... I still stuck 5p each way on it yesterday night, just in case... ;)

8 Re: Strictly over 18 on Thu May 11, 2017 12:25 pm

Ubik

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good win on wellies scram, forgot about that one and worth it on the name alone

letmestopyouthere, good winner for me before but i think thats it for him!

9 Re: Strictly over 18 on Fri May 12, 2017 2:10 am

Scram

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12/05

Loads today... not sure how i will organise all that and whether will have time to look much into them in the morning. Here they are:

Lingfield 7: Links bar marbella 125/1 & dance with kate 125/1  Lost / Lost
Ascot 6: Tara celeb 25/1 & Hajaj 25/1 Lost unfortunately :( few coins lost there in single and lucky but Hajaj Won 33/1  :lol:
Chester 2: Apex king 33/1  NR
Ripon 2: Never say 20/1  & Calypso delegator 18/1  Lost / Lost
Nottingham 4: Pirate's treasure 20/1 & Saxo Jack 40/1 & Invictus 25/1  Lost / Lost  / Lost
Nottingham 5: Miss ranger 20/1 & Do you know 18/1  Lost / Lost
Nottingham 6: Glorious power 20/1  Lost
Nottingham 7: Captain Scooby 28/1   Lost
Dundalk 1: Kookabura Charlie 33/1  Lost
Dundalk 4: Surfside 100/1  Lost
Dundalk 5: All the mollies 25/1  Lost
Dundalk 6: Iskander prince 20/1 & Cut the deck 66/1  Lost / Lost
Dundalk 7: Catwildo 25/1  Lost
Market Rasen 3: Fort Carson 18/1  Lost


Favourites so far, just quick look: Miss Ranger 20/1 Nottingham 5 & Glorious Power 20/1 Nottingham 6 obviously not, miss ranger finished 6th, glorious further down.


Well, not all of them would place but just getting one is a bit of a downer. I did not have time to dig into them or place much onto them apart from the lucky mentioned below.
Nice winner though. 3 winners in 4 days... I'll need to do some books to see if there is any profit if i was to bet on every single one of them, in here though. Probably would not have bet on all anyway. Need to see how to make this worth it...



Last edited by Scram on Fri May 12, 2017 11:08 pm; edited 2 times in total

10 Re: Strictly over 18 on Fri May 12, 2017 8:20 am

Nick C

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Not great yesterday with my picks, but I will try again with these over 18s:

10    Chester    15:00:00    Impart    20/1 n/r
11    Dundalk    19:20:00    Indoctrination    33/1 2nd (hd)
9      Dundalk    20:25:00    Iskandar Prince    20/1
14    Kilbeggan    17:50:00    Breffni    66/1
14    Kilbeggan    19:30:00    Timmone    66/1
8      Kilbeggan    20:05:00    Smadynium    18/1 2nd
11    Market Rasen    14:05:00    Overtoujay    20/1
10    Nottingham    17:10:00    Shania Says    25/1
17    Nottingham    20:30:00    Jazz Legend    22/1
7      Ripon    18:30:00    Never Say    20/1
10    Ripon    19:05:00    Mywayistheonlyway    50/1 n/r



Last edited by Nick C on Sat May 13, 2017 11:06 am; edited 1 time in total

11 Re: Strictly over 18 on Fri May 12, 2017 11:11 am

Scram

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Some nice stuff there Nick.
I had a look at your ratings after doing my shortlist and testing that in a Lucky today. Hope it works out.
I did not put much thinking into it, just looked at which horse appears in the top 2 of your ratings (apart from Tara Celeb 4th in your ratings, but also 4 places paid...)

Appearing at the top in your rating:
Iskander Prince (1)
Fort Carson (1)
Miss Ranger (1)
Captain Scooby (2)
Tara Celeb (4)

...
Obviously lost :( dream of 50k from 62p lives on... 

12 Re: Strictly over 18 on Sat May 13, 2017 11:08 am

Nick C

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Brilliant work with Hajaj at 33/1 Scram!

I only managed a couple of places yesterday, but will try these today (all ST1 on ratings):

26    Ascot        16:00:00    Kadrizzi    18/1
22    Curragh        17:05:00    Cardigan Street    33/1
17    Haydock        15:10:00    Great Fighter    22/1  3rd 25/1
9    Haydock        16:20:00    Amazour    18/1 3rd at 25/1
7    Haydock        17:25:00    Reachforthestars    20/1
8    Hexham        13:45:00    Getonsam    40/1
8    Hexham        14:20:00    Left Back    66/1
6    Lingfield    13:55:00    Flight Of Fantasy    25/1
11    Lingfield    15:40:00    Eartha Kitt    33/1
9    Nottingham    14:05:00    Rivas Rose Marie    33/1 non runner
17    Nottingham    15:50:00    Pichola Dance    20/1
16    Thirsk        19:15:00    Trick Of The Lyte    33/1
7        Warwick    17:30:00    Midnight Magic    25/1



Last edited by Nick C on Sun May 14, 2017 1:36 pm; edited 1 time in total

13 Re: Strictly over 18 on Sat May 13, 2017 11:31 am

Scram

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A few I like in your list Nick

A lighter list today:

Hexham 7: western lass 22/1
Lingfield 4: eartha kitt 28/1
Ascot 6: moondyne joe 33/1
Haydock 2: fantasy king 33/1
Nottingham 4: pinchola dance 22/1

thinking of these 5 in a lucky and very small singles.

other large odds who appear in the data but look too far fetched:
Ascot 4: gm hopkins / Outback traveller 25/1
Ascot 6: salvatore fiury 18/1
Haydock 3: hollybush henry 28/1
Curragh 6: in my place 33/1 / yourartisonfire 33/1 / vocal experience 25/1 / guanabar bay 20/1


All lost I think



Last edited by Scram on Sun May 14, 2017 6:05 pm; edited 1 time in total

14 Re: Strictly over 18 on Sat May 13, 2017 11:38 am

Nick C

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@Scram wrote:A few I like in your list Nick

A lighter list today:

Hexham 7: western lass 22/1
Lingfield 4: eartha kitt 28/1
Ascot 6: moondyne joe 33/1
Haydock 2: fantasy king 33/1
Nottingham 4: pinchola dance 22/1

thinking of these 5 in a lucky and very small singles.

other large odds who appear in the data but look too far fetched:
Ascot 4: gm hopkins / Outback traveller 25/1
Ascot 6: salvatore fiury 18/1
Haydock 3: hollybush henry 28/1
Curragh 6: in my place 33/1 / yourartisonfire 33/1 / vocal experience 25/1 / guanabar bay 20/1
Hi Scram, will follow your Lucky and I have put GM Hopkins, Pinchola Dance and Eartha Kitt in a 10p e/w patent...£1.40 pays £2211 :D

15 Re: Strictly over 18 on Sun May 14, 2017 1:25 am

Scram

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Nothing great yesterday, sorry Nick...
western lass got close but about it.  

Sunday:
Killarney
205 - brontide 66/1 - extra one in the morning, probably not but in the data  NR
305 - emilyogue 50/1 - data not terrible  Lost
335 - swamp fox 40/1 - the most interesting numbers. added it to the race by race even if not a quick pick. Placed

Curragh
155 - lynn's memory 40/1 - complicated   Lost
525 - beau satchel 20/1 - history does not look amazing but appears in 2 sets of data, so must have potential... Lost

Plumpton
515 - madam anna 25/1 - difficult  Won!

Ludlow
500 - scorpions sound 20/1 - difficult   Lost




4 winners in 6 days and a few nice places. I would think this section is making a profit but when less lazy might add up the numbers...



Last edited by Scram on Sun May 14, 2017 6:07 pm; edited 3 times in total

16 Re: Strictly over 18 on Sun May 14, 2017 1:32 pm

Nick C

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No need to apologise Scram. A bit behind schedule today, but these were over 18 last night when I did ratings. All ST1.
8    Plumpton    17:15:00    Madam Anna    25/1 1st 8/1
8    Plumpton    15:45:00    Nouailhas    28/1
15    Killarney    17:05:00    Dorkas        33/1 non runner
18    Killarney    15:35:00    Swamp Fox    33/1 4th 40/1
7    Plumpton    14:15:00    Nenergys Quest    66/1
7    Ludlow        16:30:00    Mole Trap    80/1

Looks like Swamp Fox and Madam Anna are mutual picks, so it would be rude to not have a 25p e/w double :D



Last edited by Nick C on Sun May 14, 2017 11:52 pm; edited 1 time in total

17 Re: Strictly over 18 on Sun May 14, 2017 1:53 pm

Scram

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:)
If you fancy a patent add nouailhas.
It is on my shortlist but too borderline to appear on the forum... I am onto a 1p one.

Just did the patent and noticed madam Anna shortened quite a lot to 8/1... Good omen hopefully...

18 Re: Strictly over 18 on Sun May 14, 2017 5:27 pm

Scram

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Nice one Nick, pity Swamp fox was not a winner but still great double landed! :D

 the same tomorrow?! ;)

19 Re: Strictly over 18 on Sun May 14, 2017 5:42 pm

Nick C

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Hi Scram,
Between us we did well! I missed the 25/1 on Madam Anna  last night, sometimes life gets in the way of gambling  :D (although a couple of non runners would probably reduce that anyway), so had to settle for 11/1. However,  managed 66/1 on Swamp Fox. So a 50p outlay returned £16.41, which is about 33/1.

We make a good team, so yes same again tomorrow :D . I think I will seperate the NHC from the HC on the ST1 (that sounds very nerdy, sorry), to see where the better value is.
Nick

20 Re: Strictly over 18 on Sun May 14, 2017 5:57 pm

Scram

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it does sound nerdy.
As there not so many races today i also looked through all the above 20/1 horses this morning and noted down 20 of them as potential, picked up ask nile  20/1(won), st stephen green 28/1 (won), the plan man 22/1 (placed) and swamp fox also appeared looking at the data this way. It takes too much time but was interesting to see. I did not bet on these (apart from swamp fix) as they were not appearing in my main data search.

On the spreadheet you produce would there be a way of isolating all the above 18/1 per race for a quicker look through? I would be especially interested in checking their history based on distance and past finishing, that is how i found the above ones.

cheers and well done!

21 Re: Strictly over 18 on Sun May 14, 2017 10:48 pm

Nick C

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Hi Scram. If you just want the course, time, horse and odds, that is quite easy. If you want the full detail from the ratings, I can do it, but will take a little longer. Let me know and I will see what I can do.
Nick

22 Re: Strictly over 18 on Sun May 14, 2017 11:28 pm

Nick C

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Monday 15th May
Handicap races:
11    Kempton        16:40:00    Ermyns Emerald    20/1
15    Killarney    19:40:00    Dare To Endeavour    33/1
16    Wetherby    15:25:00    Theodorico    33/1  1st 22/1
11    Wetherby    17:00:00    Scent Of Power    33/1
14    Windsor        19:50:00    Lady Kaviar    25/1 non runner
Non-handicap races
11    Windsor        20:20:00    Astute Boy    20/1 non runner
14    Brighton    16:50:00    Back To Love    33/1
14    Brighton    16:50:00    Lets Sway    20/1
18    Killarney    17:10:00    Mister Minor    50/1
11    Killarney    17:40:00    Vukovar        20/1
18    Killarney    18:40:00    Chestnut Brave    20/1 3rd 20/1
14    Killarney    20:40:00    Lavinnia    66/1 
7    Towcester    20:00:00    U Me And Them    66/1
16    Windsor        17:20:00    Tiger Khan    40/1



Last edited by Nick C on Mon May 15, 2017 10:22 pm; edited 1 time in total

23 Re: Strictly over 18 on Sun May 14, 2017 11:45 pm

Scram

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From the first set of data:

Wetherby 2.50: landing night 28/1  Nice Place 3rd
Wetherby 3.25: theodorico 33/1 - steal the scene 25/1 - slemy 18/1  Win ! / Lost / Lost
Wetherby 5.00: diamond runner 25/1  Lost

Towcester 7.00: benny's girl 20/1  Lost
Towcester 8.00: done a runner 20/1  Lost 3rd close


need to work on the second data now, pull others and compare, tweak etc.

So far looks like 1 match: Theodorico

2nd string:
Wetherby 1.50: shymrent 33/1  Win!
Wetherby 4.00: fidra bay 25/1 & cambodia 33/1  Lost / Lost

Killarney 7.40: cassels rock 20/1  NR

Seems Wetherby is the place for it... Stays at 1 match...


Made a quick calculation:
Over the last 7 days, if bid on every single one mentioned that would have meant 72 horses bet on = 144 engaged


6 wins + 5 places
Returned: 194.20
Final: +50.20


not reasonable to bet on everything as some are definitely no-hopers but still shows a profit...


Nick's partnership in 2 days:
2 wins + 1 place out of 3 horses matched!

24 Re: Strictly over 18 on Mon May 15, 2017 10:06 pm

Nick C

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Brilliant work today Scram...a 50/1 & 33/1 winner, plus a 28/1 place.
Tuesday 16th May:
Handicap
13    Chepstow    19:10:00    Kaaber        18/1  3rd 12/1
10    Chepstow    19:40:00    Wassail        25/1 non runner
11    Sedgefield    13:50:00    Roxyfet        18/1
14    Sedgefield    16:20:00    Bolero Collonges    50/1
Non-handicap
7    Southwell    20:00:00    Alto Des Mottes    20/1
8    Chepstow    17:40:00    Debutantes Ball    25/1 1st 25/1
8    Chepstow    17:40:00    Major Peirson    25/1
7    Chepstow    18:10:00    Act Swiftly    25/1
11    Killarney    18:50:00    Beautiful Ben    50/1
6    Sedgefield    14:50:00    Mahler Bay    100/1
6    Southwell    19:30:00    West To Crossgales    40/1

Hoping our combo's continue in the same vein... :lol:



Last edited by Nick C on Wed May 17, 2017 12:50 am; edited 1 time in total

25 Re: Strictly over 18 on Tue May 16, 2017 12:52 am

Scram

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Well done Nick as well a place and win on your side!

For Tuesday:
Se1 - Roxyfet 18/1  Lost
Se3 - Zolfo 50/1   Lost
B3 - Twentysvnthlancers 33/1   Lost
B4 - Sovereign bounty 20/1 - Yorkee Mo Sabee 20/1   Lost /  Lost
So1 - Larkhall 18/1 - Miami present 18/1   Lost /  Lost
So7 - Jigsaw Financial 22/1   Lost
W1 - Orthodox Lad 40/1 - Steel City 40/1   Lost /  Lost
K3 - Intense Stylist 20/1 - Beautiful Ben 50/1   Lost /  Lost

Matches with Nick:
Roxyfet 18/1  
Beautiful Ben 50/1   

would be good that the series continues... well it did not... close for quite a few of them for a place...

26 Re: Strictly over 18 on Tue May 16, 2017 11:26 pm

Scram

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Well done Nick for your winner on Tuesday. Pity about the matches but let's see about Wednesday. 
My list is very long today... would be crazy to even try betting on all of them so will try to prioritise them later:

Bath
B1 - Past fact 25/1   Unplaced 4th
B3 - Shirataki  NR
B5 - Arizona show 20/1  Lost
B7 - Delirium 20/1  NR

Yarmouth
Y1 - Pleadings 100/1  Lost
Y3 - Stun gun 25/1    Placed 3rd 40/1
Y5 - Castle talbot 20/1  Unplaced 3rd
Y8 - Percy 25/1 & Embleton 40/1  Lost / Lost


York
Y1 - Beardwood 33/1 & Oasis fantasy 22/1   Lost / Place 3rd
Y2 - New bidder 33/1  NR
Y5 - Orewa 20/1  Lost


Worcester
W3 - Shiroccodee 22/1  Lost
W5 - Steel bob 20/1  Wrong odds, this one was 9/2 no idea was 20/1, won but not large
W6 - Byron blue 22/1  Lost
W7 - Global bonus 20/1 Placed 2nd


Perth
P1 - Just brook 50/1 Unplaced 4th :(
P4 - Jewellery 20/1 Unplaced 4th
P6 - Presented 33/1  Lost
P7 - Chicago outfit 28/1 & Molten Brown 20/1  Lost / Lost


Punchestown
P4 - Arctic Light 20/1 & Django du pacos 25/1   Lost / Lost
P6 - Aces and kings 33/1 & Billy flight 20/1  Lost / Lost
P7 - Biennal 20/1  Lost


So far favourites are: orewa, presented and arctic light...

Will see with nick's matches to put on some bets on...



Last edited by Scram on Wed May 17, 2017 9:51 pm; edited 2 times in total

27 Re: Strictly over 18 on Wed May 17, 2017 12:47 am

Nick C

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Thanks Scram.
Handicap
10    Bath        19:55:00    Polkadot Princess    25/1 non runner
25    Punchestown    20:15:00    Small World    33/1 4th 33/1
14    Perth        20:05:00    Eager To Know    20/1 3rd 22/1
20    York        14:55:00    Giant Spark    25/1
9    Perth        19:35:00    Vesuvhill    33/1
16    Punchestown    18:45:00    Icantsay    25/1  1st 12/1
Non-Handicap
10    York        17:05:00    The Right Choice    18/1 non-runner
9    Yarmouth    13:40:00    Shyarch    25/1 
14    Worcester    15:05:00    Kiwi Myth    40/1
23    Punchestown    19:15:00    Patricks Boy    50/1
10    Perth        18:05:00    Just Brooke    50/1
7    Worcester    16:15:00    Rollos Reflection    100/1 2nd 33/1

I reckon Just Brooke at 50/1 is the only match with Scram.

28 Re: Strictly over 18 on Wed May 17, 2017 11:36 pm

Nick C

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Thursday 18th May
Handicap
18    Clonmel        18:30:00    Loupgarou    22/1
12    Perth        15:05:00    Lady Vivona    25/1
20    York        16:05:00    Glory Awaits    33/1
Non-handicap
18    Clonmel        17:30:00    Slievenamon    50/1
18    Clonmel        17:30:00    Our Pocket Rocket    66/1
5    Clonmel        18:00:00    Unrequited    28/1
10    Clonmel        19:00:00    Lucky Robin    18/1
10    Clonmel        19:00:00    Mister Minor    50/1
5    Fontwell    17:10:00    Onceuponathyme    40/1
7    Fontwell    19:15:00    Helpston    20/1
13    Newmarket    17:50:00    Cent Flying    20/1
9    Newmarket    19:25:00    Deciding Vote    22/1
11    York        15:30:00    Swiss Storm    18/1
7    York        16:35:00    Hit The Bid    20/1
7    York        16:35:00    Queen In Waiting    20/1

29 Re: Strictly over 18 on Wed May 17, 2017 11:49 pm

Nick C

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A very quick tot up of results, and this is based on the Best Odds available from ATR (which I use in the ratings).
65 bets in total (last 7 days).
4 winners: 25/1 33/1 25/1 25/1

12 places
2nd place: 33/1 18/1 100/1
3rd place: 20/1 16/1 25/1 25/1 20/1 18/1 22/1
4th place: 40/1 33/1

30 Re: Strictly over 18 on Thu May 18, 2017 1:21 am

Scram

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Well done Nick, another very good on your picks!

Thursday

Newmarket
N1 - Controversial lady 22/1  Lost


Salisbury
S2 - Red alert 25/1  Lost
S4 - Shanandoa 66/1  Lost
S5 - Precious angel 33/1  Placed 3rd 


Perth
P3 - King's chorista 40/1 & Lady Vivona 25/1  Lost / Lost


York
Y3 - Forest ranger 20/1 & Syphax 20/1  Lost / Lost
Y5 - Queen in waiting 20/1  NR


Clonmel
C1 - Maudin magdalen 33/1 & French elegance 50/1  Lost / Lost
C6 - Rebel cry 20/1 & Dontdelay 33/1  Lost / Lost
C7 - Perle rose 18/1


Favourite matching 2 sets of data: rebel cry & maudin magdalen but as it is in Ireland beware...

Match with Nick's selection:
Lady vivona & Queen in waiting  Lost / NR



Last edited by Scram on Thu May 18, 2017 8:36 pm; edited 1 time in total

31 Re: Strictly over 18 on Thu May 18, 2017 1:36 am

Scram

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@Nick C wrote:A very quick tot up of results, and this is based on the Best Odds available from ATR (which I use in the ratings).
65 bets in total (last 7 days).
4 winners: 25/1 33/1 25/1 25/1

12 places
2nd place: 33/1 18/1 100/1
3rd place: 20/1 16/1 25/1 25/1 20/1 18/1 22/1
4th place: 40/1 33/1

For me it looks like excellent results!
Forget about the small odds when I see that.

I make it: 65 bets = 130 pounds engaged
Returned: 223.60
Profit: +93.60 in the space of 7 days.

You beat me there:
72 bets = 144 engaged
Returned = 194.20
Profit: +50.20


On our matches, just 4 days so far:
2 wins + 1 place and 3 losses (close for 1 of them)
6 bets = 12 pounds engaged
Returned = 82.60
Profit: +70.60 and you also did a double for a bit more...

Not a bad thread! e need to pick up on matches, 2 days without wins or places is unacceptable ;) :P :)

32 Re: Strictly over 18 on Fri May 19, 2017 7:28 am

Scram

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KING OF THE MONTH
Friday

This part is not so fun at the moment without winners and with too many selections to consider multiple, Hoping for matches to do anything with it. No time to read through all of their history.

Newbury
N2 - Gravina 66/1 Lost
N4 - Hallingham 20/1  NR
N8 - Nouvelle ere 20/1 & Essenaitch 20/1 NR / Placed 2nd


Aintree
A1 - Vic's last stand 20/1 Lost 4th
A7 - Draft pick 33/1


Downpatrick
D1 - Toccata blue 20/1 Lost
D4 - Kilcaragh boy 25/1  Lost


Newcastle
N2 - Masterful act 33/1  Lost
N5 - Turning gold 18/1  Placed 3rd


Newmarket
N1 - Pulsating 33/1   Lost
N2 - Northdown 33/1 & Channel packet 22/1   Lost / Lost
N3 - Another boy   Lost 4th
N8 - Secret missile 25/1 Lost 4th


York
Y6 - Boundsy 20/1 Lost


Cork
C1 - Lucia's bob 50/1  Lost last
C2 - Oor jock 20/1 & Mctaggart 20/1  Lost / Lost
C4 - Kocollada 25/1   Lost


Seems the most interesting as double match is Secret missile in Newmarket



Last edited by Scram on Fri May 19, 2017 8:02 pm; edited 3 times in total

33 Re: Strictly over 18 on Fri May 19, 2017 8:21 am

Nick C

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No joy yesterday, hopefully something today. Prices were available last night, but I am a bit behind schedule, sorry.

10    Aintree    17:35:00    Vics Last Stand    20/1
9    Aintree    18:40:00    Querry Horse    20/1
10    Aintree    20:50:00    Culverwell    20/1
16    Cork    17:50:00    Oor Jock    20/1
15    Downpatrick    18:30:00    Cappacurry Sox    33/1
14    Downpatrick    20:45:00    Exit West    20/1
10    Hamilton    19:00:00    Framley Garth    20/1 non runner
14    Newbury    14:35:00    Eljaddaaf    33/1
12    Newbury    15:40:00    Lifeboat Lad    66/1
13    Newcastle    19:55:00    Turning Gold    18/1  3rd @ 8/1
12    Newmarket (Rowley)    14:10:00    Lady Kaviar    22/1

Matches with Scram Oor Jock 20/1, Turning Gold 18/1.

Turning Gold is a decent jockey trainer combo of Prescott & Morris.



Last edited by Nick C on Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:05 am; edited 1 time in total

34 Re: Strictly over 18 on Fri May 19, 2017 5:23 pm

Scram

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Actually missed one Nick, Vic's last stand. appeared first in my primary data... not in the second though...

3 in common, let's see how they fare today

35 Re: Strictly over 18 on Sat May 20, 2017 12:08 am

Scram

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One place matched on Friday out of 3 selections, back on track almost, with some close unplaced ones too.

Saturday
Bangor 1 - Derrydoon 33/1
Newmarket 6 - Breton belle 22/1
Newmarket 7 - Foxy forever 20/1
Newbury 3 - Al hamdany 20/1
Newbury 4 - Breton rock 40/1   Placed
Doncaster 5 - Ruled by the moon 66/1
Doncaster 7 - Vangerwen 20/1
Thirsk 5 - See the sun 28/1
Thirsk 6 - Nuova Scuola 25/1
Uttoxeter 6 - Squeeze me 22/1


A more "normal" number today...



Last edited by Scram on Sun May 21, 2017 6:09 pm; edited 1 time in total

36 Re: Strictly over 18 on Sat May 20, 2017 1:18 am

Nick C

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Apologies Scram, nothing from me until Monday.

37 Re: Strictly over 18 on Sat May 20, 2017 10:24 pm

Scram

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KING OF THE MONTH
Sunday

Market rasen
2 - Trapper peak 50/1

Ripon
3 - Racemaker 20/1  Placed 28/1

Limerick
2 - Kalamsi Repre 28/1

Naas
6 - Markhan 18/1

38 Re: Strictly over 18 on Sun May 21, 2017 10:16 pm

Scram

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KING OF THE MONTH
Monday

Punchestown
1 - Brontide 66/1
3 - Omega springs 18/1
5 - Waterville rock 20/1 - Working man 100/1  Place / Lost
6 - Broughtons stars 20/1


Leicester
2 - The greedy rory 25/1


Windsor
1 - Kodiac express 20/1  Place


Towcester
7 - Sound the bugle 33/1




Alternative list just for tracking at the moment:
Sound the bugle 33/1
plansina 25/1 - poet's dawn 20/1 - flixsoft 20/1
newgate sioux 33/1
lyric harmony 25/1 - shamah bint eric 100/1 - poet's time 50/1
Sai kung star 33/1
heavenly pulse 25/1
donnachies girl 40/1 - with intent 100/1
brontide 66/1 - first class ticket 20/1 - a shin impala 33/1
rain in spain 100/1
seaboard 33/1 - omega springs 18/1
waterville rock 20/1 - working man 100/1  Place / Lost
broughtons stars 20/1
kodiac express 20/1  Place
celtik secret 20/1 - know the truth 20/1 - shamomix 100/1
leonardo 20/1
lady alavesa 33/1  Place
the greedy boy 25/1 - whitchurch 20/1 - mr standfast 66/1



Last edited by Scram on Mon May 22, 2017 9:08 pm; edited 1 time in total

39 Re: Strictly over 18 on Sun May 21, 2017 11:33 pm

Nick C

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Nice 28/1 place for you today Scram.

12    Carlisle    16:55:00    Donnachies Girl    40/1
8    Leicester    18:35:00    Whitchurch    20/1
25    Punchestown    20:15:00    Larkfield Lass    25/1
14    Punchestown    20:45:00    Scorpy Lady    28/1
14    Redcar    14:10:00    Elixsoft    20/1
12    Redcar    15:10:00    Lyric Harmony    25/1
10    Windsor    17:55:00    Roses In June    66/1

No matches with your "main" list.

40 Re: Strictly over 18 on Mon May 22, 2017 11:57 pm

Nick C

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Nice couple of places for you today Scram, but no joy for me.

6    Huntingdon    17:35:00    Sandy Cove    25/1
9    Nottingham    15:00:00    Sail With Sultana    33/1
16    Gowran Park    18:55:00    Rosa Klebb    20/1
10    Hexham        19:15:00    Rhythm Of Sound    25/1
9    Hexham        17:45:00    Loughview Laddie    66/1
6    Huntingdon    20:35:00    Legend To Be    25/1 non runner



Last edited by Nick C on Tue May 23, 2017 11:56 pm; edited 1 time in total

41 Re: Strictly over 18 on Tue May 23, 2017 12:50 am

Scram

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Tuesday

Very small list today, weird:

Newcastle
1 - Thornaby nash 25/1  Lost 5th


Hexham
1 - Catch a lucky star 25/1  Lost 5th

Huntingdon
2 - Sandy cove 25/1  Lost 4th

Gowran
4 - Lady ranger 25/1  Lost 8th


Sandy cove match with Nick. This one looks interesting. Appears in second position in 2 sets of data behind New Agenda both times... That would be my bet on this section I think.
Thornaby nash also interesting.

Alternative list for tracking at the moment:
200 green power 20/1  Win
400 harbour force 18/1 - starboard watch 25/1
210 thornaby nash 25/1
340 moonlight blue 28/1 - circuling vultures 50/1  Place / Lost
410 young john 20/1
440 chips pellet 33/1
220 hateya 33/1 - safe waters 18/1  Place / Lost
250 golden eye 50/1
450 piccola poppy 25/1
355 always dancing 20/1 - grey willow 25/1
455 truly genius 33/1
525 lady ranger 25/1 - ringo kid 22/1 - sharp operator 20/1  Lost / Place / Place
555 zero euro 25/1
655 jamington 100/1 - rosa klebb 20/1
535 sandy cove 25/1
835 legend to be 25/1  NR
545 catch a lucky star 25/1 - beyondtheflame 50/1


close on a few but nothing great...



Last edited by Scram on Tue May 23, 2017 7:03 pm; edited 1 time in total

42 Re: Strictly over 18 on Tue May 23, 2017 1:57 pm

Relyod5454


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Happy Birthday Tony...hope you have a great week. Always have a look at your volume  of work ...you really do great work. Enjoy!

43 Re: Strictly over 18 on Tue May 23, 2017 2:06 pm

Ubik

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@Relyod5454 wrote:Happy Birthday Tony...hope you have a great week. Always have a look at your volume  of work ...you really do great work. Enjoy!


ditto and a great start with green power!

44 Re: Strictly over 18 on Tue May 23, 2017 2:50 pm

Scram

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Cheers Relyod and Ubik. My birthday is actually on 30th but appreciate the heads up ;)
Indeed Ubik. I do not yet bet on the alternative list but just monitoring it at the moment. I saw 10 days ago that it had potential when i looked at it on 9one of the days. During the weekend I tried it again and it brought some interesting ones too. Yesterday nothing much but will see over a longer period whether this has legs. Too many selection. At the moment but a couple of winners at 20/1 and there is a profit...
Today a winner and a place at 33/1 out of 4.
Monitoring only though, too risky otherwise as I did not trim the results more than what I get from the raw numbers. Looking at their history would be the next step to try to bring the bets down. This werekenf and 10 days ago the list was trimmed with success but doing that on a daily basis is quite too much work at the moment for the time I have available.

45 Re: Strictly over 18 on Tue May 23, 2017 10:45 pm

Scram

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Wednesday

quite a few more today:

Ayr
1 - columbia kid 28/1 - jack on the rock 20/1
5 - jay kay 20/1
8 - let right be done 20/1


Kempton
2 - beach dancer 33/1
3 - song of summer 20/1
4 - hell yeah 20/1
5 - golden raven 20/1 - dutiful son 20/1
6 - keene's point 20/1


Lingfield
6 - ivor's magic 20/1 - luduamf 33/1
7 - flowing clarets


Yarmouth
3 - kalimantran 22/1

Southwell
6 - dynamo 20/1


Wexford
1 - yes pat 20/1
4 - st peter's square
6 - knockraha prince 28/1


alternative for tracking only
maybe later... need some tea first...

200 pastime 33/1
210 stockton 50/1
210 tapdancealltheway 25/1
220 jack on the rocks 20/1
220 primo's comet 50/1
220 sir walter 33/1
300 little orchid 25/1
400 african trader 33/1
410 give us a belle 40/1
420 jay kay 20/1
440 luduamf 33/1
510 flowing clarets 20/1
520 sophie p 20/1
555 let right be done 20/1
600 niamh's wishes 25/1
640 geordieland 66/1
640 illusionist 22/1
640 true gentleman 50/1
710 hello girl 33/1
710 klosters 20/1
710 song of summer 20/1
710 special mission 25/1
730 mista wabbit man 40/1
730 st peter's square 25/1
740 storm rock 20/1
810 dutiful son 20/1
810 halequin striker 25/1
820 dynamo 20/1
840 black truffle 25/1
840 keene's point 20/1
900 royal zorro 20/1
910 arize 20/1

46 Re: Strictly over 18 on Tue May 23, 2017 11:58 pm

Nick C

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The best I did was a non runner with these on Tuesday! Hopefully better with these for Wednesday:

13    Kempton        20:10:00    Winklemann    25/1
11    Wexford        21:00:00    Vivalino    25/1
11    Kempton        21:10:00    The Perfect Show    20/1
11    Kempton        19:10:00    Song Of Summer    20/1
12    Lingfield    14:40:00    Sailor Malan    33/1 non runner
7    Wexford        20:00:00    Le Feu Garde    100/1
12    Lingfield    15:40:00    Incus    20/1



Last edited by Nick C on Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:11 am; edited 1 time in total

47 Re: Strictly over 18 on Thu May 25, 2017 12:21 am

Nick C

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Oh dear, another poor day for me with the over 18s on Wednesday. Onto Thursday...
11    Goodwood    15:10:00    Foresee    40/1 non runner
9    Tipperary    18:40:00    Shabdiz    33/1 non runner
17    Tipperary    20:20:00    Pivot Bridge    33/1
6    Tipperary    20:50:00    Classic Shantou    50/1
6    Warwick    17:35:00    Retain That Mahler    33/1



Last edited by Nick C on Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:13 am; edited 1 time in total

48 Re: Strictly over 18 on Thu May 25, 2017 9:01 am

Scram

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Better luck today Nick!

smallish selection here today, done this morning instead of the night before and this might change due to odds variation overnight so let's see if it is better in the morning...

Catterick 1: mops tango 40/1  Lost last
Catterick 2: dark hedges 100/1  Placed 3rd 150/1!
Catterick 7: langham 20/1  Lost
Chelmsford 3: glassalt 20/1  Lost last
Sandown 1: milky way 18/1  NR
Warwick 7: rumsden rah rah 22/1  Lost 3rd
Tipperary 6: garri rua 28/1  Lost 8th
Tipperary 6: coolfighter 40/1  Lost 5th

That's it busy day...

No matches with Nick today...

49 Re: Strictly over 18 on Thu May 25, 2017 11:20 pm

Scram

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KING OF THE MONTH
I think I will take the night off and avoid too much looking at the cards, busy day on Friday + there are too many cards.

Just checked 2 races, not looked in the usual way but looked through Bath and Good wood horses over 18/1 and had a glance at their past performances, it was a quick look and did not go into too much details on ground and competition so might be total rubbish... Not sure i will put any bets on tomorrow but if i do it might be on these more interesting ones:

Bath
320 - Hippocampus 25/1  Lost 9th
430 - Ring eye 33/1 & Wassail 33/1  Lost 10th and Place 3rd

Goodwood
200 - Firenze rosa 33/1   Place 3rd
235 - Majestic moon 33/1 & Philba 40/1   Lost 5th and last
420 - Allumage 33/1 Lost before last
455 - kadrizzi 20/1 if any, this looks the best of this lot based on history an some data
525 Grecian divine 33/1


if i manage a coffee tomorrow might do some more provided these ones are not total losers...


Should have posted the shortlist before the cut on the ones above as it reads:
320 famous dynasty 20/1 (place), sublime 33/1 (place) and hippocampus (did not place and the one i picked to put here...)
420 jelly monger 20/1 (place) and allumage (did not place and the one i put here)...
i bet on some of the ones presented above but not on the ones excluded from the shortlist, typical... :P



Last edited by Scram on Fri May 26, 2017 4:43 pm; edited 2 times in total

50 Re: Strictly over 18 on Fri May 26, 2017 12:55 am

Nick C

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Fridays :
9    Goodwood    14:00:00    Wild State    25/1
13    Goodwood    14:35:00    Lacan    40/1
14    Goodwood    16:55:00    Jordan Sport    25/1 non runner
15    Down Royal    17:45:00    Fourina    40/1
9    Bath    14:45:00    Fab    25/1 2nd @ 16/1
7    Worcester    17:50:00    Dr Anubis    40/1
7    Pontefract    19:30:00    City Guest    66/1  non runner
16    Down Royal    18:45:00    California Soul    25/1
12    Pontefract    20:00:00    B Fifty Two    25/1



Last edited by Nick C on Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:16 am; edited 1 time in total

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