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S.A.S » Festivals 2017 » Ebor Festival 2017 » Day 2 trends

Day 2 trends

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1 Day 2 trends on Wed Aug 23, 2017 7:58 pm

Ubik

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V.I.P
V.I.P
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/york-ebor-festival-trends-day-two-thurs-24th-aug-2017/

DAY TWO - Thursday 24th August 2017

 
1.55 - Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes (CLASS 2) (2yo) 6f ITV
15/15 – Had 2 or more career runs
15/15 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
15/15 – Had 1 or 2 career wins to their name
14/15 – Foaled in Feb or later
11/15 – Won from stall 10 or higher
10/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Foaled in Feb or March
7/15 – Unplaced last time out
7/15 – Had won over 6f before
6/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Trained by Brian Meehan
3/15 – Trained by William Haggas (inc 3 of last 4 winners)
2/15 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/15 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
0/15 – Placed horses from stall 1
Stormy Clouds (13/2) won the race in 2016

Note: 2008 renewal was run at Newmarket
2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 renewals were run at Doncaster

2.25 - Skybet Lowther Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV

14/15 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
14/15 – Had won over 5 or 6f before
14/15 – Had won at least once before
14/15 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
13/15 – Had not run at York before
12/15  - Drawn in stall 4 or higher
12/15 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/15 – Won last time out
10/15 – Winning distance 1 length or more
8/15 – Had won over 6f before
7/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/15 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/15 – Trained by William Haggas
Queen Kindly (9/2) won the race in 2016
Note: 2008 renewal was run at Newmarket

3.00 - Clipper Logistics Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

13/14 – Had won 2 or more times before
12/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/14 -  Winning distance of 2 lengths or less
11/14 – Returned 15/2 or bigger in the betting
10/14 – Ran at either Ascot (3), Sandown (2), Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
10/14 – Carried 9-0 or less
10/14 – Won from stall 12 or lower
10/14 – Had 4 or more runs already that season
9/14 – Unplaced last time out
8/14 – Placed favourites
5/14 – Had run at York before
3/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Won by the Hills (Barry/Charlie) stable
1/14 – Winning favourites
Firmament (8/1) won the race in 2016

3.35 - Darley Yorkshire Oaks (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) ITV

16/16 – Aged 3 (10) or 4 (6) years-old
16/16 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
15/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
14/16 – Had at least 3 previous wins to their name
13/16 – Pl6ced in the top 3 last time out
13/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
11/16 – Previous Group 1 winners
10/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
9/16 – Winning distance 1 length or more
8/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Had run at York before (3 won)
7/16 – Placed horses from stall 5
7/16 – Winners from stall 5 or 6
6/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Had run in that season’s Epsom Oaks (1 winner)
6/16 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
6/16 – Won by an Irish-based trainer
4/16 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
4/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (Won it 8 times in all)
2/16  - Trained by Jim Bolger
Seventh Heaven (10/3) won the race in 2016
Note: 2008 renewal was run at Newmarket

2 Re: Day 2 trends on Wed Aug 23, 2017 9:24 pm

XxicequeenxX

avatar
FRIDAY £5 CHALLENGE WEEKLY CHAMP £40.00
FRIDAY £5 CHALLENGE WEEKLY CHAMP £40.00
Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes
1.55 York
Run at Newmarket in 2008

Key trends

Lost maiden tag, ten winners in last ten runnings
Adjusted Racing Post Rating of at least 105, 9/10
Sire stamina index between 6.7f and 9.3f, 9/10
Between two and four runs, 7/10
Other factors

Just two of the 26 fillies who have lined up won (Midnight Martini in 2009 and Stormy Clouds last year).

Of the 12 penalised runners, two won (Hototo in 2012 and Tasleet in 2015).

Five winners had competed in Group or Listed company.

Two winners were top-rated but three had between 10lb and 27lb to find.

Verdict

The two to meet all the criteria are Great Prospector and Alba Power. Richard Fahey landed this in 2010 with a well backed favourite in Wootton Bassett and Great Prospector has an obvious chance following his latest third in Newmarket's Group 2 Superlative Stakes. However, he is taken on at a much bigger price with Alba Power. Hugo Palmer's colt has shown comparable form in Listed and Pattern company. Kevin Ryan won this in 2011 and 2012 and Hey Jonesy may prove best of the rest.

11/1
Alba Power
1:55 York

3 Re: Day 2 trends on Wed Aug 23, 2017 9:24 pm

XxicequeenxX

avatar
FRIDAY £5 CHALLENGE WEEKLY CHAMP £40.00
FRIDAY £5 CHALLENGE WEEKLY CHAMP £40.00
Clipper Logistics Stakes
3.00 York
Abandoned in 2008

Key trends

Top-three finish within last three starts, 8/9
Distance winner, 8/9
Aged three or four, 7/9
Officially rated 96-103, 7/9
Won a race that season, 6/9
Other factors

Five winners were drawn in double figures. Three of the other four came from stall one.

Verdict

The five to fulfil all the criteria are El Hayem, El Vip, Ronald R, GK Chesterton and Qassem. The latter two are much the biggest odds from that quintet, but while GK Chesterton has bombed on his last two starts, Hugo Palmer's four-year-old comes here on a high having appreciated the drop back to this trip when winning at Chelmsford last time following his promising fifth in a hot 1m2½f course handicap on his reappearance. Firmament won this last year but is much higher in the weights this time.

11/1
Qassem
3:00 York

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