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S.A.S » Festivals 2017 » Ebor Festival 2017 » TIPSTERS WHO I HAVE FOLLOWED WHO DO WELL

TIPSTERS WHO I HAVE FOLLOWED WHO DO WELL

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1 TIPSTERS WHO I HAVE FOLLOWED WHO DO WELL on Tue Aug 22, 2017 9:35 pm

XxicequeenxX

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QUEEN OF THE MONTH
QUEEN OF THE MONTH
Recommended Bets
Back Move In Time at 16.00 or bigger in 13:55 at York
Back Afandem at 38.00 or bigger in 13:55 at York
Back Douglas Macarthur at 15.00 win and 3.40 place in 15:00 at York
Back Oceane at 15.00 or bigger in 16:15 at York

I was going to bore you with holiday tales before I got stuck into Wednesday's action at York.

But bore would be the right word - I was based in the hills above Paphos and was driving every night, and as a result I don't have any - so we will quickly move on.

I am not even particularly refreshed either, because I happened to be within earshot of the some of the most annoying, whining kids most of the time - I'm so glad I drew stumps on the fatherhood front 23 years ago, citing two and out - so I really haven't returned a particularly happy bunny.

Front-running Macarthur worth chancing in first time hood

No shocks there then, but hopefully there will be a surprise or two on the Knavesmire this week, starting with Douglas Macarthur in the Voltigeur at 15.00 and 3.40 win and place in the 15:00. I think Cracksman is a very opposable favourite at around the evens mark, and he makes the market for the rest.

Wayne Lordan is no stranger when it comes to riding, and winning on, supposed second strings in big races - he is still in my good books after steering Winter to 1,000 Guineas glory in May - and I hope he has picked up another good one here.

The long and short of it is that I don't think the horse should be a double-figure price - he is officially the second highest-rated in here on 114, alongside Khalidi, and 2lb shy of the favourite - and he could be all set to get his own way out in front.

He didn't in the Irish Derby last time but it sounded like he was sacrificed on the altar of team tactics there - the trainer admitted as much after the race - as The Anvil was allowed to go on instead.

So I'm going to park that effort and concentrate on his earlier efforts in making all to beat Yucatan and Capri in the Derrinstown, and when a trailblazing seventh in the Derby when, if anything, he set too fast a pace and did well to hang on in there as the closers swooped at the 2f pole.

I think he could be hard to peg back here and another interesting angle is the first-time hood, as it could help him settle a bit better than he did at Epsom. From 2016 onwards, the trainer is a very decent 13 from 55 when using this headgear for the first time.

I could waffle on about the other horses - I also could make a case for Mirage Dancer and Venice Beach at the prices as well - but it's Douglas Macarthur for me. And not because the man he was named after featured in the latest book I read about WWI on holiday when there was sufficient peace and quiet.

And, remember, if one of the eight runners doesn't take part, you still get three places on the exchange, though with an applicable Rule 4.

Two against the field in competitive curtain raiser

There was a bit of 18/1 available on the fixed-odds front about Move In Time in the 13:55 when the betting re-opened on Monday afternoon and he is still available at 16.00 and bigger on the exchange and that's very fair.

He may well have won with a clear run on his penultimate start over course and distance, so I was all over him back at this track over 6f, off the same mark, last time. He could never get into the race from off the pace, and on the unfavoured near side, that day but I thought he travelled with real zest and shaped really well anyway, and the handicapper has dropped him 2lb.

He is clearly not the same horse as he was when winning the Abbaye but he is incredibly well-weighted - he is 11lb lower than when beaten a short head by Blaine in this race three years ago - and there has been more than enough promise in his last two starts for me to have a decent bet. The visor back on is interesting, as well.

I also like him stepping back in trip, too - he stays 6f but all his best form is at 5f - there is loads of pace all around him in stall 17 (though admittedly a lot of speed is also drawn low, with El Astronaute in one and Thesme in two, so you have to have worries there), and good ground, or quicker, is perfect for him. He handles cut but I would prefer the rain to stay away for him.

And, thankfully, the stable have had winners aplenty this month (11 the last time I looked, from August 9th onwards) after a frustrating barren run in July.

I was going to have just the one play in the race until I saw Afandem was available at 38.00 or bigger on the exchange, so he is a bet, too.

Now, he has point blank failed to build on some excellent juvenile efforts, including over course and distance at this meeting last season, in four starts this term.

But he has dropped 12lb to a mark of 95 as a result, and he didn't run at all badly on his penultimate start at Newmarket off a 5lb higher mark than this. I think a reproduction of that effort here could see him be very competitive once again, and a strongly-run 5f is what he wants. He is worth chancing at these odds.

Repeat victory on the cards for King runner

I don't have a betting opinion in the Acomb at 14:25 but if you forced my arm maybe James Garfield win and place. But there are so many exciting and unexposed horses in here, then I can easily let this race go without any of my money attached to it.

Tactics will be fascinating in the Juddmonte at 15:35 as there is no guaranteed pace in the race, which will suit Aidan O'Brien just fine. 

His Cliffs Of Moher has gone on in the past and perhaps he will do so again after meeting sorts in trouble behind Ulysses and Barney Roy.

Again, I don't have a strong opinion in the race, so I'm happy to watch. Ulysses is a fair bet at around 7/2 or so, but nothing more. A win for any of the top five in the betting wouldn't surprise me, and a first-time visor on My Dream Boat back to 1m2f makes him quite interesting at 40/1, too.

The closing nursery doesn't interest me but I will go outside my terrestrial brief and put up Oceane at 15.00 or bigger in the 16:15.

The angle here is a first-time visor for the horse, as the stable is 10-44 when going down this route in recent years (2 from 8 on Flat).

Alan King knows what he is doing when he tries new headgear on his 'osses - though when I asked him about this at Sandown earlier in the year he didn't know about his impressive strike rate - and the visor replaces the cheekpieces.

He ran okay up to a point over 2m4f at Ascot last time though, and I think the return to 2m will suit him. Indeed, he won this race last year, off a 7lb lower mark admittedly, and good or quicker ground is fine for him.

The stable are in good form, too, with three winners from their last four runners going into Tuesday's racing.

2 Re: TIPSTERS WHO I HAVE FOLLOWED WHO DO WELL on Tue Aug 22, 2017 9:36 pm

XxicequeenxX

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QUEEN OF THE MONTH
QUEEN OF THE MONTH
I follow his stuff over on the Betfair often and he does find some good value bets so thought i post it here just in case some do not look

3 Re: TIPSTERS WHO I HAVE FOLLOWED WHO DO WELL on Tue Aug 22, 2017 9:41 pm

XxicequeenxX

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QUEEN OF THE MONTH
QUEEN OF THE MONTH
13:55 - Afandem
We found out last season that Afandem doesn't want the ground too fast, his best efforts coming on good going, and he's one of a number of my entries for the Ebor Meeting who needs the showers forecast for Wednesday morning to materialise. He looked to be coming back to form in a strong three-year-old handicap at Newmarket last month, when travelling well for five of the six furlongs, and that race is working out really well, with the fourth, fifth and sixth all winning competitive events since.
I was looking forward to running him back at the minimum trip, but he spoilt his chance with a slow start at Ascot last time, and it goes without saying that he needs to get away better if he's to have a chance here. He's in stall 18 of 20, and perhaps the main pace will be on the other flank, but it's never easy to tell how the draw will work out on the straight track at York until they start racing.

16:50 - Ghayadh

In the old days, Gayadh would have been able to go straight into nurseries after winning on his racecourse bow at Beverley, but the recent reorganisation of the programme for juveniles means that he's needed two subsequent runs in order to qualify for handicaps, and he's rather been a victim of that system, struggling to concede a penalty in subsequent novice events. It's also worth pointing out that he's not been suited by slower ground since that debut win on good to firm, and he has a much more realistic chance of getting back to winning ways in this contest, especially if the going remains on the fast side of good.

4 Re: TIPSTERS WHO I HAVE FOLLOWED WHO DO WELL on Wed Aug 23, 2017 9:21 pm

XxicequeenxX

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QUEEN OF THE MONTH
QUEEN OF THE MONTH
Recommended Bets
Back One Word More at 15.00 in 15:00 at York
Back El Vip at 12.00 in 15:00 at York
Back Curlew River at 8.00 win and 2.66 place, or bigger, in 16:15 at York


We love a bit of weather chat in England, and all hell broke loose on Twitter when it started raining at 10.15am at York on Wednesday morning. Oh, what fun we had.
To be serious, it does make putting up bets for the following day a bit tricky, and it is best to proceed with more caution than usual with my tips - stop laughing at the back, please - but I am working on the assumption of good ground, so it probably really isn't an issue.
I will take the card in chronological order and quickly gloss over the opener at 13:55. The top three in the market are all pretty obvious and priced accordingly, and I couldn't get particularly excited about any of the rest in what looks a devilishly difficult contest. Pass.
I won't waste your time with the Lowther Stakes at 14:25 either, though if the ground isn't too bad then I think Actress is probably the bet at 4/1 or bigger if it's on offer. Her third against the colts in the Phoenix Stakes last time is the best form on offer here and she should be favourite, though connections do think she wants fast ground.


Easterby can have the last word


Fear not, as we are going in two-handed in the near-1m handicap at 15:00, and I am going to side with an old favourite, and one who let me down at Ascot.
Actually, I don't think I've ever tipped One Word More when he has copped - not surprising maybe given he is 3 from 38 - but that could all change here.
He has scraped in at the bottom of the weights and off his lowest mark for over two years - in fact he races off the same mark as when beating So Beloved at Thirsk in April 2015 - and he rates a bet at 15.00 or better.
He has run some of his better races here, and off much higher marks too, and he comes here on the back of a good fifth at Goodwood last time.
He can be frustrating and get going all too late, but good to firm or good to soft is fine for him, and he is weighted to go in again. Let's hope win number four beckons.
El Vip may not even run if there is any more rain - one of his poorer runs came on good to soft ground - but this horse is thought capable of rating a lot higher than his present level of 99, which he was upped to after a fluent Newcastle win in June. Back him at 12.00 or bigger as a saver.
He went off at 9/1 in the Hunt Cup but could never get into the race at any stage from his midfield draw - the race was dominated by those berthed on the stands rail - and that run is a complete write-off.
At a bigger price in a lesser race, he is worth a secondary nibble. The first-time cheekpieces make Blair House an interesting proposition - Charlie Appleby is 10 from 30 with this headgear since the start of 2016 - but I draw the line at having two bets in a here. In this column, anyway.
I wouldn't rule out a shock in the Yorkshire Oaks at 15:35, and Enable at 1.35 certainly isn't floating my boat.
The problem is that her two main opponents, Nezwaah and Queen's Trust, could both have done without Tuesday's rain, so this is yet another no-bet race, sorry.


Curlew River can continue upward curve


I am going to go outside of my terrestrial brief to look or further bets and I am focusing on Curlew River against the favourite Mori in the 16:15. Back her win and place at 8.00 and 2.60, or bigger, respectively.
Mori is obviously the horse to beat - with More Mischief the next most likely winner - but she has been off the track since finishing second in the Ribblesdale two months ago, and she could be vulnerable after that lay-off. She doesn't do anything quickly, either.
No such worries with the selection, who underlined a very progressive profile when winning easily off a mark of 86 over 1m4f at Brighton a fortnight ago and, if she can see off the pace attentions of some lesser-rated rivals early on (and two or three of these do like to go on, as well), she could prove hard to reel in. She also ran well with some ease in the ground on her debut.
I was toying with putting up Cristal Fizz in the lucky last, mainly because she is fairly handicapped on her European Classic runs and wears first time cheekpieces, with whom William Haggas is 7 from 22 since the start of 2016, with five seconds to boot, as well.
But the price is nothing special and I'll be keeping my powder relatively dry at York on Thursday.

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