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S.A.S » Ebor Festival 2017 » Pricewise AntiPost

Pricewise AntiPost

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1Pricewise AntiPost  Empty Pricewise AntiPost on Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:10 pm


Clever Cookie

Betfred Ebor

1pt each-way at 33-1


Betfred Ebor

1pt win at 25-1

Ten years ago, I wouldn't have dreamed of putting up a nine-year-old to win the Betfred Ebor because the race invariably went to an unexposed type whose true talent had been somewhat hidden from the handicapper.

That is often not the case any more with any number of big-priced winners and an increasingly diminishing weight range between the top and bottom of the handicap. Consequently, I think the ante-post value might well be the old boy Clever Cookie, who has shown more than enough on his last two starts to suggest he can be a force in a race like the Ebor.

Two starts ago in the Northumberland Plate, Clever Cookie was drawn on the wide outside and was dropped out last as a consequence. That wouldn't have been too big a problem if there had been a strong pace, but they wasn't and Clever Cookie had no chance of coming from last to first up the home straight

He made a good fist of it though and might have been fifth instead of ninth but for being hampered a furlong out. That form seems to be the key to the Ebor with ante-post favourite Flymetothestars having finished third.

Last time, over the Ebor course and distance, Clever Cookie once again had too much running to do given the way the race went, but he stayed on like a Trojan up the home straight and wasn't beaten far by Barsanti and Rare Rhythm. Both of those ran brilliant races at Royal Ascot with Barsanti, who was only a length and three-quarters in front of Clever Cookie, finishing second to King George hope Idaho in the Hardwicke, while the winner Rare Rhythm ran away with the Duke of Edinburgh.

Dual-purpose superstar Sea Pigeon won the Ebor as a nine-year-old in 1979 and, while none of that age has scored since, Clever Cookie is dangerously well handicapped now and his last two runs strongly suggest he is still as good as ever.

Flymetothestars could easily be a Sir Mark Prescott special as he pulled far too hard in the Plate and still finished third. However, it would take a brave person to back him at his current odds as he has never run on turf.

More interesting as ante-post prospects go would be a couple who ran well in the race last season. Battersea was fourth and has dropped a couple of pounds in the handicap so another good run would be no surprise, while Shrewd stayed on to finish second to Heartbreak City. The problem with Shrewd is that he hasn't shown any form this season. If he shows signs of life prior to the Ebor, he would be extremely interesting.

If the ground was soft Saigon City would have a good chance at a track he likes, but he might be more of a Cesarewitch type as he does take time to warm up in his races.

The other one I like at this stage is Kidmenever for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. He reminds me a lot of 2012 winner Willing Foe in that he does all his racing at shorter trips but will surely be better over the Ebor trip of 1m6f.

He was third in the Wolferton at Royal Ascot on his first British run for Appleby and followed that up with another staying-on effort over 1m2f when second in a Listed race at Sandown.

Two of his best runs have come when stepped up to a mile and a half and on both occasions he strongly suggested a further step up in trip would suit him even better.

2Pricewise AntiPost  Empty Re: Pricewise AntiPost on Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:18 pm


Green Fortune4:50 York
He might be favourite, but Green Fortune does seem to have plenty going for him as he bids to give William Haggas a birthday winner at his favourite track.

The half-brother to the stable's Raucous (earned a rating of 106 as a juvenile) has won two of his three starts and all of his form has worked out well.
He won what turned out to be a fairly hot Lingfield novice event on his debut as the next five home have won ten times between them since, and while he was only third to 50-1 shot Staxton at Haydock next time, the winner has boosted the form again since and the runner-up is now rated 97 after running fifth in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes.
Last time out Green Fortune improved again in first-time cheekpieces to deny Amazing Alice a hat-trick and she duly won again next time out. 
Haggas has given Green Fortune an entry in the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes next month (a race in which Raucous was third to Ribchester two years ago) and if he is to justify that entry he ought to be competitive in a handicap off a mark of 87.

3Pricewise AntiPost  Empty Re: Pricewise AntiPost on Wed Aug 23, 2017 9:19 pm



Hey Jonesy
1.55 York
1pt win at 11-2 with Coral (5-1 Ladbrokes)

1.55 York
1pt win at 12-1 with bet365 (10-1 generally)

One Word More
3.00 York
1pt win at 14-1 with bet365 (12-1 with Ladbrokes & Hills)

The rain may have come but the weather could not dampen a tremendous first day of the Ebor Festival. York may not have a race of the quality of the Juddmonte on day two but it hosts the best three-year-old in Europe currently, and Enable should have no problem winning the Darley Yorkshire Oaks (3.35).

The other highlight is the Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (2.25). If the race was run at Newmarket or Ascot I would be keen to chance the Goodwood maiden winner Threading against those with proven form. However the Mark Johnston hotpot Dee Ex Bee was 'Yorked' in the Acomb and Threading has been well found in the market now.

In contrast to the Johnston team, Richard Fahey's horses always seem to bring their A-game to the Knavesmire and yesterday's rain will probaly be a big help to his main hope Great Prospector in the Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes (1.55). He is undoubtedly the form horse on his third in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket, but that was over 7f and I just wonder whether the pace is on the other side of the track.

The opening sprint on day one was dominated by those drawn low, but stalls 18 and 19 were placed in the concluding nursery. It seemed more important to be prominent and from stall 18 I think that Hey Jonesy is going to be hard to beat.

Hey Jonesy was really impressive over course and distance on soft ground in July and has been aimed at this race ever since. Kevin Ryan has a great record in this event and I think Great Prospector will struggle to pick him up.

Drawn next door, I reckon another of Richard Fahey's runners, the filly Darkanna is worth backing too. She has not been beaten far at all in Group races the last three times she's run and the soft ground holds no fears for her.

The big betting race of the day is the Clipper Logistics Handicap (3.00) and, as you would expect, all the unexposed ones are at the head of the market. However if you had backed seven-year-olds or over in the Class 1 or 2 handicaps this year you would be miles in profit and a nine-year-old won the opener on day one.

A low draw is a big help on fast ground over 1m but usually irrelevant with give underfoot, so the old boy I suggest backing is One Word More for Tim Easterby, whose horses are in tremendous form. 

One Word More will need pace and some luck in running, but the ground will be no issue and he can race off an 11lb lower mark than when fifth in this race a few years ago.

He was probably a little flattered by his fast-finishing fifth in the Betfred Mile at Goodwood last time because he was never put into the race at any stage. Having said that he came home best of all and I would imagine that this race, rather than Goodwood, has been his target all season long.

The worry would be a lack of pace, but if he gets the gaps he will outrun his price. 

The main dangers are probably Ronald R and Victory Bond. The former was a tad unlucky not to win the Britannia at Royal Ascot as he only had eight others to race against that day with the rest on the other side of the track. The booking of Ryan Moore for the first time is a massive plus too, while Victory Bond is an improver who ran well over a trip too far in Group company last time.

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